Trump criticizes the world as a casino, but "jumping the gun" on transactions still relies on his policy points

Author: Xiao Yanyan, Jintou Data

U.S. President Donald Trump said Thursday that he is concerned about the growing trend of betting on geopolitical events, and added that the world has “become a bit like a casino.”

When asked about the arrest of a U.S. special forces soldier suspected of placing bets related to the capture of Venezuelan President Maduro, Trump said he did not know the details and would look into it.

Citing people familiar with the matter, ABC News reported that on Thursday U.S. federal authorities arrested a special forces soldier involved in the operation to capture Maduro, who allegedly profited more than $400,000 by betting on Maduro’s removal from office.

People familiar with the matter said federal investigators believe the commando placed bets worth more than $330,000 on the prediction market Polymarket more than 3.3 hours before Trump announced the capture of Maduro in January. This series of bets generated more than $409,000 in profit, immediately triggering internal scrutiny within the prediction market and launching an insider trading investigation that lasted for months.

“It’s like Pete Rose betting on his own team,” Trump said, referring to the late baseball player who was banned from Major League Baseball for gambling.

When pressed on whether he was concerned about betting activities related to the war with Iran, Trump said it is a global issue.

“Well, I think the whole world, unfortunately, has already become a bit like a casino,” Trump said, adding that this kind of betting “is happening everywhere around the world—there are people doing these kinds of betting activities everywhere.”

“Now, I’m not happy about it,” he concluded.

Trump’s shift on Iran policy highlights Washington’s insider trading threat

In the oil market, volatility has recently surged to levels never seen since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. Global commodities and stock markets have been roiled sharply by every twist in the Iran conflict: strikes, pauses, “the threat to destroy a civilization,” ceasefires—then the prospect of a deal, no deal, and again the prospect of a deal…

Amid the recent bouts of intense market turbulence, one recurring theme has been trades that were timed with pinpoint precision, and that left traders with their pockets full. Some of these trades—especially in the oil market—seem to follow a pattern: the timing is practically perfect, just ahead of the time Trump releases a statement or a social media post.

In a letter to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) calling for an investigation, Senator Elizabeth Warren referenced multiple trades on April 7. At around 3:45 p.m. New York time that day, traders executed trades of more than 15 million barrels of Brent crude and WTI futures contracts within two minutes, worth approximately $1.7 billion. During the same time window, U.S. and European stock index futures also saw a similar surge.

About three hours later, Trump posted on a social platform that he would announce a two-week ceasefire. When markets reopened, WTI crude prices fell more than 15% in early trading, while stocks rose more than 2.5%. Theoretically, if an investor had shorted $1 million worth of oil futures during the afternoon surge, then after taking profits later that evening when Trump announced the ceasefire, they could have earned nearly $170,000.

Earlier, on March 23, Trump posted on social media that the U.S. would delay strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure by five days. 16 minutes before that post, oil and stock index futures worth billions of dollars had already changed hands. According to exchange data compiled by Bloomberg, within a two-minute window starting at 6:49 a.m. New York time, contracts representing at least 6 million barrels of Brent crude and WTI crude were traded.

During the same time period, around 6,000 U.S. stock index futures contracts were traded, worth more than $2 billion. After Trump’s post was published at 7:05 a.m., Brent crude fell by about 15%, and U.S. stocks rose nearly 4% from intraday lows to intraday highs.

Democratic lawmakers and other critics argue that some recent profitable trades seem “incredibly perfect,” making it difficult to explain them purely by skill or luck. Under mounting political pressure, the CFTC has launched an investigation into signs of insider trading.

In the latest flare-up, Rep. Ritchie Torres on Wednesday called on the CFTC to expand the scope of its investigation to “suspicious” trades that appeared in oil futures before Trump announced this week’s extension of the ceasefire.

He wrote: “This incident is not an isolated case; rather, it is part of a broader and deeply concerning pattern.” The CFTC previously declined to comment on the investigation, and on Thursday it also did not respond to related questions.

So far, there has been no evidence that White House staff have profited from insider trading. However, officials recently sent an email to all employees warning them not to use confidential information to trade. In a statement on Thursday, White House spokesperson Davis Ingle said:

“All federal employees are bound by the government’s ethics rules, which prohibit using nonpublic information to obtain economic benefit. However, implying—without evidence—that government officials are engaged in such activities is baseless and irresponsible reporting. The CFTC will continue to carry out its duties, including daily monitoring of fraud, manipulation, and illegal activities.”

CME Group and the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), the major crude oil futures trading platforms, both declined to comment.

To be fair, concerns that government information could be used for insider trading have arisen in administrations throughout history, including Trump’s first term.

In 2019, after a controversial Vanity Fair article suggested that investors could earn billions of dollars by trading before news that affects the market was released, the CFTC investigated whether government leaks may have helped generate enormous profits in the futures market. That investigation ultimately did not lead to enforcement action.

Eitan Goelman, who previously served as head of enforcement at the CFTC and is now a partner at Zuckerman Spaeder LLP, said derivatives regulators have ample investigative authority. However, he also noted that it is more difficult to punish those found to have participated in suspicious trades.

He said the derivatives rules make this “more complex than in the securities arena.”

The CFTC’s main authority to root out insider trading based on government information is also relatively new. Due to concerns that futures traders might profit from insider information, lawmakers in the 2010 Dodd-Frank Act added a provision known as the “Eddie Murphy rule.”

The regulation made it illegal for investors in the commodities markets to engage in the kind of scheme depicted in the famous 1983 film Trading Places. In the film, characters played by Murphy and Dan Aykroyd used leaked government crop reports to bet on orange juice futures and make millions of dollars.

As the CFTC deepened its investigation, and online debate about whether some trades were driven by insider information intensified, markets beyond oil continued to be volatile.

Even before the Iran conflict broke out, whispers in Washington had already raised questions about whether people were placing bets using insider information about Trump or his administration’s next moves. Trades made before Trump announced the “Day of Liberation” tariff pause in April 2025, as well as prediction market bets on whether Venezuelan leader Maduro would be ousted, sparked speculation.

Betting on world events is rapidly expanding on prediction markets. On Polymarket, the geopolitical category is quickly becoming one of the platform’s most popular categories. According to data compiled by Dune Analytics from user records, in the week ending April 6, the amount staked by bettors on this category reached a record $560 million, compared with about $100 million in the first week of this year.

Unlike the crowded trading in oil futures, liquidity in prediction markets may be relatively sparse—which makes it easier to influence the market. This was clearly demonstrated in January: on Polymarket, a single trader made nearly $400,000 by betting on Maduro’s arrest, and the largest bets were just completed before Trump publicly announced the military operation.

Maduro’s case also spilled over into other geopolitical bets. At the time, bets that Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei would be ousted before this summer surged. He died within the first few hours after the war broke out.

In March, Polymarket announced “enhanced market integrity rules,” explicitly banning three types of insider trading: trading using stolen confidential information, illegally disclosing information, and betting by individuals who can influence the outcome of events. The company also said that all forms of fraud and market manipulation are prohibited.

Integrity issues in prediction markets are not limited to betting on conflicts. On Wednesday, Kalshi said it had suspended and fined three congressional candidates for “political insider trading” related to their own campaigns. On Thursday, the company did not offer further comment. Kalshi lists insider trading bans on its website and said in March that it was taking additional measures to prevent them.

More bets on political and global events are coming. And with them will come more questions about how the bettors managed to get it right.