Recently, I saw someone use the stablecoin supply curve to draw lines against ETF net inflows, essentially suggesting that sometimes the correlation is just everyone doing "risk switches" at the same time. Off-chain funds don't necessarily turn into stablecoins immediately; they might first sit with brokers or go through market making/lending to get on-chain; conversely, an increase in stablecoins might just be arbitrage traders moving assets around, not indicating new buying interest.

I like to visualize it as a dependency diagram: who is the entry point, who is the buffer, who is the amplifier... like water pipes or circuits, opening a valve doesn't mean water immediately reaches the end. Recently, before and after the main chain upgrade, everyone was guessing project migrations, but I'm more concerned about whether bridges, oracles, and liquidations might be "accidentally" pulled into systemic risks. Anyway, whenever I see "one indicator explains the whole world," I tend to hold back.