Recently, I've seen too many people treat "on-chain large transfers/exchange hot and cold wallets moving" as a signal of smart money. Honestly, I'm a bit exhausted by it... This thing is too noisy, so don't rush to jump to conclusions.

If a newbie wants to judge whether a project is reliable or not, I actually recommend starting with three more boring things: GitHub, audit reports, and upgrade multi-signatures. Don't look at stars or popularity on GitHub; instead, check if there is continuous maintenance in the commit history, whether key changes are explained, and if PR/issues are responded to seriously. For audit reports, don't just look at "pass/not found"; focus on the scope (which contracts were audited), whether known risks are vaguely "accepted," and whether the re-audit after fixes has been done.

Finally, about upgrade multi-signatures: can they be upgraded, who can sign, how many signatures are needed, and whether there is delay (timelock). To put it simply, if it can be upgraded with one click and without delay, even if it's fancy, I will be more cautious. Anyway, I prefer to miss out on the hype rather than be woken up in the middle of the night by an upgrade.