Short-term distribution has begun. Now, all three cycles—short, medium, and long—are starting to distribute!

Below, we analyze the trend in detail through various indicators:

Trend Cost Band (Figure 1)
The short-term has just begun distributing, meaning the price has just reached near the midpoint average of the trend band, and was immediately pushed down to the lower edge. Currently holding the lower edge indicates that institutions intend to maintain this distribution trend, taking the opportunity to push the price higher for continued distribution.
However, market buying is very weak; a small short-term distribution directly pushed the price close to 1000 points.
For the medium-term distribution, after the price pierced the upper trend boundary at the high point of 79,330, it immediately dropped to around the midpoint at 78,153, and the downward spike just crossed the lower boundary at 76,967 before quickly recovering.
This proves that the institutions controlling the medium-term distribution have fully dominated this distribution trend; the price cannot escape the trend cost band. Once the price reaches the midpoint or upper boundary, it is immediately suppressed by the medium-term trend.
The short-term trend is completely controlled by the medium-term trend, and must follow the cost band range set by the medium-term.
For the long-term trend band, the expected maximum distribution of $2.5 billion has already been surpassed, with $2.85B distributed, indicating that institutions are completely oversold.
The situation reflected by the cost bands of the two cycles is that buying is very weak, institutions are fully in control, and a small amount of distribution can push the price down. If this distribution completes, the market will likely experience a significant correction.

Chip Vacuum (Figure 2)
Why has the price been fluctuating around 77,000–78,000? The previously mentioned thick absorption gap between 77,100 and 76,300 played a key role. This was the thickest defensive wall built by institutions during the last new high push. When the price fell into this range, it was fully absorbed by buy orders, preventing the price from falling further.
Especially after touching 76,950 early this morning, it immediately rebounded nearly 1,000 points, once again proving the strength of this support.
However, the three institutions that built this absorption vacuum above the gap to push for a new high have all been broken through, and this thickest wall has been tested once. If there are two or three more tests, it will definitely be broken.

Intensive Battle (Figure 3, left and middle)
Currently, the intense battle fully reflects the trend seen earlier: short-term seesawing between bulls and bears, while medium-term is dominated by bearish pressure. This also indicates that currently, short- and medium-term bears are suppressing the price below 78,000, while some short-term bulls are trying to hold the price above 77,000. This explains why the price has been fluctuating between 77,000 and 78,000, but since the bullish force is relatively weak, it will eventually be defeated if no new strength joins.

Liquidation Pain Point (Figure 3, right)
The short-term liquidation pain point appeared at 18:00 on the 23rd, indicating a price drop below 76,000 to trigger stop-losses of many long positions. This essentially means the recent healthy upward trend cannot be completely broken.
Most importantly, this indicator’s signals are often broken through quickly, so it may be seen soon within the short-term trend.

In summary, the current trend is fully controlled by the medium-term distribution. Market buying is very weak, and a very small selling pressure can suppress the market. Special attention should be paid to the upper boundary at 79,330; if it is broken through convincingly, a new high could appear, currently around 80,100, which is not far.
The lower boundary at 76,967, once broken, will lead to a breach of the very weak buy orders below at 76,300, and the liquidation pain point at 76,000 will also be broken.
If the market declines unilaterally, the short-term chip vacuum at 74,000 will also be broken.
Further down, the long-term absorption vacuum from this major trend rising from 65,000 to 79,000 can be viewed as a rising staircase: 72,500 – 71,000 – 67,600 will be broken one by one, ultimately finding support between 66,000 and 65,000.
If the 77,000–76,300 range holds, then a quick rebound after a dip and normal absorption will keep the trend very healthy.

Summary:
All indicators point to the target above being too close, while support below is lacking.
Downward: 77,000 – 76,967 – 76,300 – 76,000. If the market declines unilaterally, levels at 74,000 – 72,500 – 71,000 – 67,600 will all be broken.