The overall trend for the upcoming market remains a rebound rally

Here are some of my reasons for judgment

1. The bear markets in previous years lasted 12 to 13 months.

2. In past bear markets, several major black swan events caused crashes. None have occurred yet; currently, it's just the AAVE liquidity crisis, but it may not necessarily explode.

3. Typical giant IPOs in 2026 include SpaceX in June and OpenAI, Anthropic in Q4, each raising hundreds of billions of dollars. These giant IPOs will drain liquidity from the entire financial market, including the US stock market and cryptocurrencies.

4. The US midterm elections are scheduled for November 3, 2026. Every midterm election has historically caused a significant drop in the US stock market, which in turn drives cryptocurrencies lower.

5. Currently, Bitcoin is around 60k, and there are no signs of large accumulation volume. During the 2022 bear market, when BTC was between 15k and 20k, trading volume increased significantly, with substantial accumulation and turnover.

In summary, the bear market bottom is most likely to be seen in the second half of 2026

Regarding the bottom price of the bear market, previous bear markets have fallen 70% to 80%. This time, it’s estimated to fall 60% to 70%.

In the short term, expect a rebound to fill the CME gap at 79,600–81,000; the long-term view is that the rebound is not a reversal.