In the past couple of days, someone’s been watching the unlock calendar again and shouting “Selling pressure is coming,” but what I care about more is the more hidden thing in options: time value. Even if the buyer is right on direction, they still might not make a profit, because every day they’re being worn down by time. The seller looks, on the surface, like they’re “collecting rent,” but in reality they’re betting that no real black swan will appear—if one does, one big burst of volatility isn’t just a loss; it’s enough to make them give back all the premium they collected earlier, and it still won’t be enough. Put simply, who the time value is eating away depends on whether you can hold out through that stretch of “waiting for the market,” with no clear momentum.

What I’m more afraid of right now is the combination of liquidity retreat and unlocking sentiment stacking on top of each other—one spike in volatility can suddenly magnify everything. The seller’s illusion of being “stable” is the easiest thing to shatter… Anyway, I’d rather do less than be the one standing on the opposite side when other people are anxious and dumping under selling pressure. That’s it for now.