There’s an interesting market development underway. Recently, the traditional financial giant Nasdaq submitted a filing to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, planning to launch stock index–based binary options products, including the Nasdaq-100 and the Nasdaq-100 Micro Index. What does this move mean? Simply put, it lets traders bet on whether major stock indexes will rise or fall—if they win, they earn returns; if they lose, they lose everything.

Binary options themselves are simple: they’re bets with only two possible outcomes. The contract prices proposed by Nasdaq range from 1 cent to 1 dollar, and the price itself reflects the market’s assessment of the probability that a given outcome will occur. This model is essentially similar to prediction market platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi—it’s a way for users to trade on the results of specific events.

What’s interesting is that this isn’t just Nasdaq’s move. Another traditional exchange has also announced a similar plan, aiming to secure a foothold in this fast-growing prediction market space. This reflects a shift in the traditional economy: established financial institutions are beginning to recognize a trend—prediction markets are moving from niche to mainstream.

On the other hand, crypto exchanges are also taking action one after another. A large crypto exchange recently rolled out prediction market features on its platform, enabling digital asset traders to participate in contract trading for political, economic, and cultural events. And another crypto exchange received approval from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission in December last year, becoming the first approved crypto exchange—now able to legally operate designated contract markets in the United States.

The logic behind this phenomenon is quite clear. The regulatory framework of the traditional economy is gradually adjusting to this new way of trading—prediction markets. From Nasdaq’s binary options filing to crypto exchanges obtaining regulatory approval, what we’re seeing is a convergence of the traditional economic system and prediction market mechanisms. Large players in traditional finance are learning the playbook of prediction markets, while crypto exchanges are earning regulatory recognition within the traditional financial sphere.

This may mean that event-based trading could become more mainstream in the future. Whether it’s stock indexes or economic data releases, they could all become trading targets. Participants in the traditional economy clearly don’t want to miss out on this opportunity.