I noticed an interesting analysis about the future of the dollar by Steve Kamin from the American Institute of Entrepreneurship. The guy takes it seriously—he previously led the international finance department at the Fed and represented the United States at the G7, G20, and БМР.

The core of his position is that the dollar will remain the dominant currency in the coming years, but more and more questions are arising. The reason? Current U.S. economic policy is undermining it. Tariffs, immigration restrictions, rising government debt, reduced investment in R&D—everything is working against the dollar’s position on the global stage.

But here’s what’s interesting: the dollar itself is not the goal, but a side effect of strong American institutions. The size of the U.S. economy, the depth of its stock markets, and the role of American banks in global finance are what keep the dollar afloat. In the near term, this system is unlikely to collapse.

One of Kamin’s key ideas is rethinking the so-called “excessively privileged position” of the United States. Yes, the dollar provides advantages, but this status is not as secure as it seems. Especially when looking at the use of financial sanctions: they are effective, but excessive use of them can weaken the dollar’s global influence.

An interesting point about the dollar’s behavior after recent events. Previously, the dollar was always a safe-haven currency—when the market panicked, people bought dollars. But the dollar’s sensitivity to the VIX index has changed. For some time after that, it even began to fall as volatility increased. This means the dollar is gradually moving from the safe-haven category to risky assets.

That said, the latest data shows that the dollar’s status as a safe asset still holds. The correlation with the VIX remains positive. Despite geopolitical uncertainties, the dollar continues to act as insurance for investors.

Kamin’s conclusion: the future of the dollar is less certain than it was two years ago. But a complete collapse in the foreseeable future is unlikely. Everything depends on how reasonable U.S. economic policy will be and how geopolitical events will unfold.