Last week was honestly crazy—developments in the Middle East added real pressure to the markets and created uncertainty that directly showed up in price movements.

The main issue now is that the Federal Reserve faces a very tough equation: inflation is still high and employment is weakening, which means there is a real possibility of stagflation if the right steps are not taken. Recent economic data showed mixed signals, and the market is unsure about the direction ahead.

The new week will be crucial because there’s a series of very important data:

On Monday, we’ll receive New York’s annual inflation expectations. Wednesday is the big day—comprehensive and core CPI data for February (annual and monthly); these are the figures the market is anxiously waiting for. Friday will be extremely busy: core PCE data (the real inflation from the Fed’s perspective), personal spending, revised GDP, durable goods orders, then JOLTS and job opportunities, and finally consumer confidence from the University of Michigan.

The scenario is simple: if the core inflation data (especially PCE and CPI on a monthly basis) come in stronger than expected, the dollar will rise further and gold will fall. The exact opposite is true if the data is weak—the dollar will weaken and gold may rebound.

By the way, Oracle will announce its earnings on Tuesday after the market closes, which could affect tech market sentiment. Reporting financial results from major tech companies always provides signals about the broader health of the economy.

In short, this week will determine a lot about the path of monetary policy and the markets overall. Closely monitoring this data is essential for anyone watching the markets.