So NVIDIA's had a rough start to 2026 if we're being honest. The stock dropped from that $212 all-time high down to $175 by the end of Q1, and honestly the next few months are going to be crucial for where this thing heads. I've been watching the charts and there's definitely some pressure here.

The big catalyst everyone's waiting for is the earnings report hitting on May 20th. This is where NVIDIA earnings will really matter because the market's been pricing in some pretty specific expectations. Analysts are looking for revenue to jump nearly 79% to around $79 billion, which is substantial. Some of the more bullish guys are even calling for $85 billion. The thing is, NVIDIA earnings have consistently beaten expectations over time, so there's this weird dynamic where strong results sometimes don't move the stock much anymore because the bar keeps getting reset.

What I find more interesting is the EPS story. We're talking about earnings per share potentially jumping from $0.81 to $1.78 - that's a 120% surge. Compare that to the S&P 500's typical 13% earnings growth and you see why people are still watching this closely. The hyperscalers and these newer data center companies like Nebius and CoreWeave aren't slowing down their GPU purchases, so the revenue story seems solid.

Now there's also the SpaceX IPO coming later this quarter, which people think will move NVIDIA stock. Honestly I think it'll be minor, but here's the angle: NVIDIA has a stake in xAI through the SpaceX merger, so if that IPO pops, there's some upside there. Plus SpaceX will probably turn around and buy a ton of NVIDIA GPUs after raising capital, so there's an indirect benefit.

Then you've got Trump's China trip potentially opening up another revenue stream. NVIDIA's been blocked from selling to China, but if that changes, we're talking about a $50 billion annual revenue opportunity. That would be massive.

On the technical side though, I'm seeing some warning signs. The stock broke below the 50-day moving average and already tested that $170 support level. If it closes below $170, we're looking at a head-and-shoulders pattern completing, which typically means more downside. The Supertrend indicator is also pointing down.

My base case is NVIDIA stock probably tests that $150 support level this quarter before any real recovery. If we get a disappointing earnings beat or weak forward guidance, that happens faster. But if the earnings beat is really strong and they guide higher, then that $193 resistance could be in play, potentially leading back to $212 and new highs.

So we're basically waiting for May 20th to see if NVIDIA earnings can turn this ship around or if we're heading lower first. The technicals suggest lower, but the fundamentals are still intact. Just need to see what the company actually says.