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Once the funding rate turns extreme, my first reaction is not “go long,” but to ask myself: is this move just driven by overheated emotions, or are people really adding to their positions? Simply put, the more exaggerated the funding rate, the more it feels like it’s reminding me not to treat my position like a belief. Taking the opposite side is definitely attractive, but only if you can withstand that stretch of the most uncomfortable volatility—otherwise you’re just turning into stop-loss fuel for the market.
Right now, I feel more like applying patches: try to hold the opposite side with a small position, then keep the rest out of it, reduce leverage, and wait until the funding rate returns to normal before considering adding again. Recently, new L1/L2 projects have started throwing out incentives to boost TVL, and it’s not surprising that old users complain about “mine-then-sell.” In the short term, it’s lively—lively, sure—but in the end, it’s still a matter of keeping score: are you earning the interest-rate spread, or are you just getting lucky? Anyway, I’d rather make a little less than treat the risk premium as a free lunch when the funding rate is extreme.