99% no rate hike! The United States' interest rates have entered a "freeze mode," what is the market waiting for? The latest market interest rate expectations show that the probability of the U.S. raising interest rates by 25 basis points in April is only about 1%, with a 99% chance of keeping rates unchanged. Looking at June expectations: the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 2.6%, the probability of holding steady is 96.4%, and the probability of a 25 basis point hike again is 1%. Overall, interest rates are almost in a "frozen state" in the short term, with very limited room for policy changes. What does this mean? The macro-level driving forces are weakening, and the market is more likely to enter a phase of "waiting for data + waiting for signals" in the short term. For risk assets (including the crypto market), this environment usually means: volatility may decrease, but a directional breakout requires new catalysts.