Yang Guang bit BTC 4.24 Today's Strategy

【Latest News】 (Sources: CCTV News, Reuters, White House Statement, Iran Tasnim News Agency)
After the US-Iran temporary ceasefire expires, negotiations have completely stalled, and the second round of talks mediated by Pakistan is progressing extremely slowly, with the core bargaining point still set for April 26; the US claims to have "completely blockaded" the Strait of Hormuz and maintains comprehensive sanctions on Iran, while reserving military options. Iran has explicitly stated, "No lifting of maritime blockade, no return to negotiations," and Israel has simultaneously announced readiness for all-out operations against Iran. Currently, there is no substantial large-scale military conflict, but risk aversion sentiment is marginally increasing, with no systemic panic or collapse risk.
On the macro level, according to CME "Fed Watch" latest data, the probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in June has fallen to 1.7%, with expectations of "higher for longer" interest rates continuing to strengthen. The US dollar index and 10-year US Treasury yields are both strengthening; overnight, the Nasdaq closed down 1.09%, with tech stocks collectively pulling back, putting pressure on global risk assets; affected by geopolitical deadlock, Brent crude oil stabilized above $105 per barrel, with an intraday increase of over 3%, inflation expectations rising again, further constraining the Fed's easing space.
【Market Status】 (As of April 24, Sources: TradingView, Glassnode)
BTC current price around $78,400, a high-volatility zone with a key support/resistance level, 24h fluctuation range $76,815-$78,520, short-term bulls and bears are intensifying, entering a critical window for direction choice;
Technical: 4-hour MA20/MA60 golden cross is stable, Bollinger middle band at 77,200 is the core support, short-term resistance at 78,500, previous high at 79,472 USD. The current price is approaching a strong resistance level, with high-level stagnation in short-term indicators, indicating a need for a pullback and correction;
Funding: Spot BTC ETF has seen net inflows for 7 consecutive days, institutional support remains; whales holding 1,000-10,000 coins have increased holdings by over 280k coins in the past 30 days, with concentration continuing to rise. The total exchange balance on the network remains at a 9-year low, with limited circulating supply pressure;
Contracts: Over the past 24 hours, total BTC contract liquidations exceeded $280 million, most leveraged long positions have been cleared, short-term selling pressure has been temporarily released, the futures long/short ratio has fallen to 1.18, market sentiment is neutral, with no signs of excessive enthusiasm or panic.
【Today’s Outlook】
✅ Holders: Continue holding long positions in the 75,000-76,800 range, target 78,500-79,400, break previous high to look at 80,000; current price at 78,400, reduce 40% of positions to lock in profits, move stop-loss to 77,800 to protect capital and play for a breakout.
✅ Non-entries: After a pullback and stabilization around 77,500-77,800, buy in batches, with stop-loss below 77,200 (exit if effectively broken below Bollinger middle band); if volume breaks through the previous high at 79,500, can lightly chase longs with a stop-loss at 78,500, target 80,000-80,500. Strictly avoid heavy positions blindly chasing highs.
✅ Extreme contingency: In case of sudden sharp decline due to bad news, if stabilized around 76,000-76,500, add small positions, stop-loss at 75,500; if it falls to the core support at 75,000 and stabilizes, increase position size, stop-loss at 74,500.
【Risk Warning】
Geopolitical Black Swan: Beware of escalation of the Strait of Hormuz conflict leading to oil price surges and market panic selling;
Technical Risks: Effective break below 77,200 Bollinger middle band indicates weakening of short-term bullish structure, reduce positions timely to avoid risks;
Trading Discipline: Strict stop-loss, avoid blindly chasing highs, take profits gradually.
🚀 Summary: The high-level battle at the key support/resistance zone, the medium- to long-term bullish trend remains intact. Focus on buying on dips at key supports, strictly control positions and risk management, and wait for a breakout of previous highs.
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