Lately I've been looking at those "address profiling" tools again, tagging a bunch of labels for you: smart money, yield farmers, whales, institutions... Honestly, I only trust half of it. On-chain is indeed transparent, but people are not. Someone might have a dozen accounts, wash them back and forth, and clustering looks great, but it might just be the same lone wolf acting alone.

Now I prefer to focus on the "rhythm" of capital flows, like suddenly a series of addresses trying out a niche pool at the same time—probably someone doing a task or exploring, not necessarily big money entering. And that macro stuff is also pretty annoying: expectations of rate cuts, the dollar index moving in sync with risk assets, lots of heated discussion, but on the chain it just means: people are more willing to move, and gas bills are more willing to be spent.

By the way, I found that lowering my target actually helps me stick with it longer: instead of chasing "catching the main players," I just find one abnormal transfer/interaction each day that can be explained, jot down a couple of notes, and that's enough. Anyway, I’m not here to write a thesis, so I’ll leave it at that.