Anta's growth narrative "vacuum period"

Ask AI · What market concerns lie behind Anta’s collective downgrade of growth engines?

Author | Liu Yichen Editor | Song He

In 2025, Anta Sports delivered a report card matching its leading position: total revenue of 80.22B yuan, up 13.3% year-on-year, maintaining the top spot in China’s sports footwear and apparel industry for the fourth consecutive year.

But if we shift the perspective from “scale” to “structure,” changes in growth momentum are now hard to ignore.

The growth rate of the main brand’s revenue slowed to 3.7%, while FILA grew by 6.9% year-on-year. With nearly 30 billion yuan in size, it only maintained mid-to-low single-digit expansion, no longer able to serve as the group’s “engine.”

In recent years, the true driver of growth has been the “other brands” segment—represented by Descente and KOLON—whose revenue surged 59.2% to 17B yuan, with Descente’s revenue surpassing 10 billion yuan for the first time, becoming the group’s third billion-level brand.

But the capital market’s response has not been enthusiastic.

Market doubts are likely triggered by the 2026 performance guidance: low single-digit growth for the main brand, mid-single-digit for FILA, and a slowdown from nearly 60% high growth in “other brands” to over 20%.

In recent years, with DTC transformation, Arc’teryx capitalization, and Descente’s breakout, Anta had built a clear growth narrative: through multi-brand acquisitions and refined operations, continuously incubating new growth curves.

But now, the growth engines that have taken turns over the past few years are simultaneously entering a downgrade phase.

High-growth sources are collectively slowing, while new variables are still in the investment phase. For Anta, growth continues, but the next chapter is temporarily absent.

1

Expectations of Downgrade

First, it must be clarified that this is not a disappointing financial report.

In 2025, Anta’s revenue exceeded 80 billion yuan, maintaining relatively stable profit levels driven by cost optimization, with fundamentals still solid.

Some believe that the company’s current conservative growth guidance is more about expectation management than a clear demand slowdown.

Lin Wenjia, an analyst at PuSilver International, said that Anta’s conservative guidance is mainly “expectation management.” Although Q1 2026 faces high base pressure, as the base lowers in Q2, as long as industry demand remains stable, the likelihood of a sharp slowdown in revenue growth is not high.

Based on this, he judges that whether it’s the main brand or other brands, their final performance is likely to outperform the cautious targets set by the company.

But precisely because “fundamentals have not shown obvious deterioration,” market attention is shifting more toward structural changes.

First is the “scissors gap” in profit structure.

In 2025, Anta’s overall gross profit margin slightly declined by 0.2 percentage points to 62%.

Among them, FILA, to strengthen its professional branding and improve product functionality and quality, saw its gross margin fall by 1.4 percentage points to 66.4%; the main brand’s margin was dragged down by increased e-commerce revenue share.

More signaling is the marginal weakening of profitability.

In the second half of 2025, the operating profit margin of the main brand dropped to 18.3%, falling below the long-term maintained range of about 20%. In the context of sluggish footwear and apparel market recovery, intensified competition, and increased investment, profit margins in the mass price segment are being squeezed.

These changes further influence channel strategies.

Although the main brand’s gross margin of 53.6% remains higher than comparable competitors, recent channel downshifting of professional products to the mass price segment has limited expectations for margin expansion.

In 2025, Anta’s main brand stores increased by only 68 to 7,203 stores, and the 2026 guidance indicates a store range of 7,000–7,100, entering a net reduction zone. The focus is on improving per-store output through models like “Super Anta” and “Anta Hall,” rather than pure scale expansion.

The main brand and FILA, which together contribute over 70% of operating profit, are the core profit drivers. Their “steady growth” is both a support and a constraint—they determine the bottom line but are unlikely to provide much flexibility anymore.

The “other brands” segment that surged in the past two years is actively shifting gears.

Although Descente delivered a stellar performance in 2025 with revenue surpassing 10 billion yuan and an average monthly store sales of over 2.7 million yuan, its expansion pace in 2026 has clearly slowed, with net store additions dropping from 30 last year to 4–14.

KOLON has become the fastest-growing brand within the group: its 2025 revenue exceeded 6 billion yuan, a nearly 70% YoY increase, with store efficiency reaching 2 million yuan.

But unlike Descente, the company has not set a clear timeline for KOLON reaching “billion-scale” status.

This reflects a certain restraint from management: in the context of diminishing outdoor market dividends, Anta prefers to control the pace rather than rapidly expand.

In contrast, new variables “Wolfe” and “PUMA” are still in earlier stages.

Wolfe has just established its “full-scenario professional hiking” positioning, opening stores in Beijing, Shanghai, Chongqing, Hefei, and other locations for brand image upgrades and channel enhancement, with plans to gradually expand store numbers in 2026. Due to being in the early stage of brand reshaping, short-term losses may further increase.

For PUMA, Anta’s rights mainly focus on distribution and operations in China, rather than full acquisition, meaning its autonomy in brand restructuring is limited. Market judgment suggests Anta’s acquisition of PUMA is more about defensive positioning in the international sports fashion arena.

From a timeline perspective, both Wolfe and PUMA are still in the “capability-building” phase, unlikely to contribute significant performance growth in the short term.

This results in a relatively rare situation for Anta in 2026: old engines are slowing down, star engines are restrained, and new engines have yet to take over.

Growth continues, but the narrative gap has already appeared.

2

Building Up for the Next Stage

The narrative entering a phase of vacuum does not mean Anta has entered a “dormant period.”

On the contrary, during a phase where growth logic needs reconstruction, the company must advance multiple paths simultaneously to find new sources of certainty.

First, a return of the outdoor track from “fashion-driven” to “sports-driven.”

In recent years, the rapid growth of mid-to-high-end brands like Descente and KOLON was largely driven by the “outdoor fashion” trend—functional products being normalized and stylized for daily wear.

But as this dividend diminishes, consumer focus is shifting back to product performance and professional scenarios.

In this context, Descente continues to invest in skiing, golf, triathlon, and other professional projects, strengthening its technical barriers in high-performance sports, sponsoring the Chinese national alpine skiing team and triathlon national team.

KOLON, by associating with trail running, rock climbing, and other niche scenes, is establishing a “professional outdoor” brand image, becoming an official sponsor of the Chinese national rock climbing team and deeply involved in the Ninghai trail challenge (UTMB station).

Second, amid intensified competition in the mass sports segment, the main brand also needs to continuously strengthen its professional sports narrative to answer consumers’ “Why choose Anta.”

In 2025, Anta invested about 2.5 billion yuan in R&D, with R&D expenses rising to 3.1%, and plans to maintain double-digit growth in 2026, focusing on “carbon-neutral fabrics” and “smart wear” fields.

Anta is also steadily advancing its globalization efforts in 2025—not only through acquiring international brands but also by actively “going global.”

The 2025 annual report first detailed overseas revenue: exceeding 850 million yuan, up about 70% YoY, with Southeast Asia contributing over 60%.

In Singapore, Thailand, Malaysia, and other markets, the company is promoting channel development through “joint ventures + regional distributors,” opening over 100 stores and establishing initial brand recognition in key commercial areas.

Industry insiders told Xin Feng that, unlike domestic channel expansion, Anta emphasizes connecting with local sports ecosystems overseas—sponsoring sports organizations, events, and athletes to build brand interaction with local communities.

For example, early 2026, Anta became a partner of the Singapore Olympic Council and provided gear for its winter sports delegation; it also sponsored the Singapore Basketball Association and participated in local sports talent development.

Anta is also exploring more diversified overseas expansion strategies.

In August 2025, Anta partnered with China Duty Free Group to enter the Cambodian market, with China Duty Free operating local stores—Anta’s first attempt at “light-asset overseas expansion” via mature retail systems.

Regionally, Southeast Asia remains the current bridgehead, with the “Thousand Stores Plan” deepening efforts there, while extending into the Middle East and Africa.

In Europe and America, Anta collaborates with Foot Locker, JD Sports, and others; in September 2025, the Anta brand opened a flagship store in Beverly Hills, Los Angeles, further integrating into the global mainstream sports consumption system.

Overall, Anta’s current approach is not to quickly replicate “the next Descente,” but to steadily advance along three paths:

Reinforcing professional capabilities in product development, rebuilding sports-oriented branding at the main brand level, and promoting globalization at the regional level.

These paths may not generate explosive growth in the short term but are crucial for the company to navigate the current narrative gap and lay the foundation for future growth.