I recently came across an interesting analysis by Ben Cowan from Into The Cryptoverse — a guy who seriously understands crypto cycles. His forecast about Bitcoin's decline sounds quite cautious, yet fairly convincing.

Main conclusion: the probability that we have already hit the bottom in this cycle is only 25%. That is, we are most likely headed for an even deeper decline. Cowan relies on historical patterns, and the numbers are truly impressive — a 70% drop in Bitcoin is quite consistent with what we've seen in previous bear markets.

What’s interesting: bear markets are not just straight downward drops. They are full of upward movements that then suddenly collapse. This traps both bulls and bears — they get confused in such conditions.

According to him, if Bitcoin falls into the range of 30,000 to 50,000, it would be a very convincing signal of a true bottom. Currently, the price is around 78,000, so a decline of that scale would mean a serious correction. Cowan also notes that Bitcoin historically reaches its bottom below the realized price level at the end of bear cycles — we are just approaching this critical level.

He suggests that later this year, a dip below 60,000 is possible, but it could be a relatively short-term move. A new all-time high this year? Cowan considers that highly unlikely.

Another indicator worth paying attention to is social interest in crypto. Since 2021, it has been systematically declining, indicating reduced activity among retail investors. This also indirectly confirms that the market has not fully bottomed out yet.

In general, if we trust historical indicators and Cowan’s analysis, Bitcoin’s decline could be deeper than many expect. It’s worth monitoring these levels and not relying solely on short-term upward movements — they could just be false breakouts before a more serious drop.