The United States releases major data, U.S. stock index futures fall across the board, and the dollar surges! The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates has changed.

Ask AI · Why did U.S. employment data far exceed expectations and trigger market volatility?

Reporter | Jiang Peixia, Intern Editor | Lin Qianwei

Editor | Zhang Nan

The latest U.S. employment data has been released. On the evening of April 3, according to data published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. March non-farm payrolls increased by 178,000, compared with an estimate of an increase of 65,000; the previous figure was revised to a decrease of 92,000, marking the largest increase since the end of 2024. The March unemployment rate edged down slightly to 4.3%, while market expectations were that it would remain unchanged from the previous month at 4.4%. This outcome was higher than all economists’ expectations.

According to an analysis by Xinhua Finance, in the absence of any obvious downturn in the labor market, the Federal Reserve can focus on reducing inflation, which likely means interest rates will remain unchanged for a longer period. After the non-farm payroll data was released, market bets on the Federal Reserve cutting rates in 2026 fell. The U.S. Dollar Index surged straight up, reaching as high as 100.16 at one point. The U.S. Treasury market, meanwhile, sold off across the board. The yield on the two-year U.S. Treasury note—sensitive to interest rates—rose to around 3.88% at one point.

U.S. stock index futures all fell. S&P 500 index futures ultimately dropped 0.29%, Dow Jones index futures fell 0.23%, and Nasdaq 100 index futures declined 0.37%.

According to CME “FedWatch,” the probability of the Federal Reserve raising rates by 25 basis points in April is currently 0.5%, while the probability of holding rates steady is 99.5%. The probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut by June is 2.0%, with a 97.5% chance of holding rates steady, and a 0.5% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike.

On Friday’s end-of-day in New York, the ICE U.S. Dollar Index inched up 0.1%. After the non-farm payroll data was released, it surged instantly to 100.160, setting a new intraday high, and then fell back below 100.

The U.S. dollar to offshore Chinese yuan was quoted at 6.8859, down 42 points from Thursday’s New York close. In overall intraday trading, it traded in the 6.8904–6.8787 range. This week, the offshore Chinese yuan has cumulatively risen by about 330 points, up 0.48%, with continued gains on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Because of the holiday closure on Friday, the oil market was closed. On Thursday, oil prices finished the day at very high levels. WTI crude rose to over $110, and on April 2 it surged by more than 13% at one point. Brent crude was at a high of $109.34 per barrel.

Gold prices paused their four-day winning streak on Thursday. Spot gold fell 1.71% to $4,676.86 per ounce. Spot silver was $72.95 per ounce. COMEX gold futures fell 2.29%, staying above $4,700. According to Wind, spot gold has already retreated more than 13% from this year’s high of $5,598 per ounce.

Do you think the Federal Reserve will continue to cut interest rates this year? Chat in the comments.

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(Statement: The content of this article is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors act at their own risk, and they bear the risk.)

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