Half a year has passed in 2026, but the Bitcoin market continues to be driven by macroeconomic uncertainties. The correction phase that started with weak U.S. retail sales last month seems to be lasting longer than expected.

Earlier this month, Bitcoin dropped to around $67,900, breaking below the psychological support level of $70,000. Since then, there has been some rebound, and it has now recovered to the $78,000 range, but this volatility reflects the market's instability.

What’s interesting is that gold has maintained above the $5,000 level during this phase. As a traditional safe-haven asset, gold is demonstrating its strength as funds flee from technology stocks and cryptocurrencies. On the other hand, Bitcoin, often called "digital gold," is still functioning as a risk-on asset in reality. When macro conditions worsen, cryptocurrencies are among the first to be sold off.

Underlying this is a reassessment of the AI industry. As the overheated AI rally cools and the Nasdaq softens, many institutional investors are unwinding their positions. Since many major players in the crypto market overlap with technology stock investors, the impact is directly transmitted.

Meanwhile, it’s intriguing that the Dow Jones Industrial Average continues to hit new highs. Funds are flowing into value stocks and defensive sectors. In other words, the overall market is shifting from "growth" to "stability." The price movements of Bitcoin in 2026 mirror this major capital flow reversal.

With the release of NFP data approaching, the market is in a delicate balance. Institutional investors are reducing their positions in preparation for extreme volatility. In a market with thinning liquidity, even small news can cause large swings. Whether Bitcoin can regain $70,000 again depends on future macro indicators.

The current "fear" index suggests selling pressure has somewhat eased, but as long as unresolved macroeconomic uncertainties remain, there is a risk of retesting lows. The altcoin market is also in a correction phase, and without a clear leading sector, it may take time for market sentiment to improve.

For investors, this is not just about observing price fluctuations but understanding the economic logic behind capital flows, making it a crucial phase.