Shouchuang Futures: The fundamentals of crude oil remain strong in April

The world’s most important spot crude oil price—the prompt Brent crude—broke through $140 per barrel, hitting the highest level since 2008. The benchmark surged sharply from a baseline of just slightly above $128 on the prior day, and it has already surpassed the peak reached during the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022. Earlier, the market broadly expected Trump to announce a ceasefire, and a large amount of short funds positioned themselves in advance to bet against crude oil. But in his remarks, Trump not only failed to announce an end to the conflict—he instead vowed to severely strike Iran within the next two to three weeks. This gap in expectations triggered a stampede of short-covering, sending oil prices soaring. Supply disruptions caused by the Strait of Hormuz blockade have already exceeded 10 million barrels per day. Even if navigation resumes, it will take more than a month for supply to recover, meaning crude oil fundamentals in April will still remain strong. (First Capital Futures)