I see Bitcoin is currently hovering around $77.88K but has lost momentum. A few days ago, it tried to break $76K but failed, and now it’s looking at the $70K level again. Traders are concerned whether it’s truly forming a base or will go lower.

Chart analyst named Axel Kibar is talking about a wedge pattern that looks like a setup seen from the end of last year into the beginning of this year. According to him, if the lower line breaks, it could drop to $52.5K. Exiting this wedge means testing a support zone again between $73.7K and $76.5K.

What I understand is that all of this depends on macro factors. Oil prices are rising, people are worried about rising inflation, and the Fed’s expectation of lowering interest rates has diminished. The market now sees a 50% chance of interest rate hikes by the end of 2026, whereas a few months ago, there was hope for four cuts. These macro changes are directly impacting the crypto market.

Glasnode’s options data shows that $75K has closed short gamma, meaning upside pressure is weak. This is a sign of range trading. In the coming weeks, we’ll see whether Bitcoin can stay above $70K or if rising inflation and macro concerns push it into a deeper downturn. The movements in oil and inflation are now the key drivers for everything.