I noticed an interesting picture over the weekend — serious money has started flowing into spot Bitcoin ETFs. Just on Friday, the inflow exceeded 240 million, with the bulk going through IBIT from BlackRock (137,6 million) and Fidelity FBTC (78 million). Such volumes of bitcoin etf inflows are not unusual, but they clearly point to institutional players actively accumulating.

At that moment, the BTC price was holding above $72K, and now it has already risen to $77.8K. Everything seems fine, but the technical picture isn’t that clear-cut. Analyst Тед Пиллоуз points to the key level of $73–74K, where a reversal could happen. If Bitcoin fails to consolidate here, a pullback to $66K or even $60K is possible. On the other hand, breaking above could open the way to $76–80K.

What’s interesting: derivatives data shows that big speculators are holding long positions, while commercial traders are holding shorts. Поппе notes that this kind of positioning was seen before a major move in 2023, but it doesn’t guarantee growth — most likely, it’s waiting for volatility. At the same time, bitcoin etf inflows remain stable, which indicates steady demand from institutions.

MicroStrategy and other corporate players continue to accumulate BTC, creating support from below. The market has refused to fall for one and a half years already — hinting at hidden strength. But with this level of speculation, bitcoin etf inflows may not be enough for a breakout. The key resistance zone is $72–74K. If we break through, a rally could follow. If we bounce, expect a correction.