Will Bitcoin keep up as U.S. stocks continue to hit new highs?

Recently, U.S. stocks have been continually setting new stage highs, while Bitcoin has only shown a modest rise. This divergence is not accidental, but the combined result of multiple macroeconomic and market-structure factors.

From the perspective of macro liquidity, the rise in U.S. stocks is driven more by strengthened expectations for a soft landing for the economy, as well as optimistic market pricing of future rate cuts by the new Federal Reserve chair.

In particular, the AI industry has remained intensely hot, channeling capital to technology giants and producing impressive index performance.

However, Bitcoin is more sensitive to liquidity, but its rallies often rely on “genuine easing,” such as large-scale money printing or a rapid decline in interest rates, whereas currently it is still in an expectation-driven easing phase, and funds prefer stocks with greater certainty.

In addition, there are still significant differences in the current capital composition of the two markets. U.S. stock gains are mainly driven by institutional capital, especially by passive index funds and large asset managers continuing to increase positions.

Meanwhile, although Bitcoin has recently seen sustained capital inflows through ETFs, its overall scale is still insufficient to stand up to the U.S. stock market.

At the same time, some early profit-taking has already been realized at high levels, weakening BTC’s upward momentum and creating the appearance that it “can’t rise.”

Current market risk appetite is not expanding across the board, but rather taking the form of a structural risk preference. Capital is more willing to bet on technology companies with clear, logic-backed earnings rather than on crypto assets driven purely by narratives.

Although Bitcoin is regarded as digital gold, in a phase when economic expectations improve, its safe-haven attributes are actually weakened, reducing its appeal.

Moreover, the regulatory environment and market sentiment are also affecting the pace. U.S. regulation of the crypto industry still carries uncertainty (especially as recent clear legislation repeatedly hits obstacles), which limits further entry by some institutional capital. By comparison, the institutional environment for U.S. stocks is more mature and transparent, making capital allocation smoother.

But over the coming period, Bitcoin still has the potential for a catch-up rally. If after succeeding, Kevin Võš can enter a rate-cut cycle and liquidity truly gets released, Bitcoin could see a stretch of gains—making up for the current lag, and even potentially outperforming U.S. stocks.

Of course, if AI-driven earnings growth keeps exceeding expectations and macro liquidity does not loosen significantly, capital may continue concentrating in core U.S. assets. In that case, Bitcoin would likely remain range-bound but has a lower probability of a trend-defining breakout.

There is also a bad possibility: if economic data weakens or policy expectations reverse, causing U.S. stocks to pull back from high levels, Bitcoin may also be unable to escape it—especially given its higher volatility, its correction would inevitably be larger.

Therefore, the current situation is not that Bitcoin’s fundamentals are weakening, but rather the result of a phased shift in capital preference.

From a medium- to long-term perspective, Bitcoin is still in the process of institutionalization, and its linkage with traditional financial markets will gradually strengthen. But in the short term, the strong momentum in U.S. stocks may continue until a true liquidity turning point appears.