Bitcoin has recently started to give an interesting technical signal. Analysts who have observed a death cross forming on the three-day chart say that historically it has been a sign of major declines. In particular, this pattern appears when the 50-day moving average (MA50) falls below the 200-day moving average (MA200).

This death cross signal is not new. Since 2014, it has appeared in every bear cycle in a similar way, and each time it has been followed by sharp drops. During the crypto winters of 2018 and 2022, when this signal appeared, Bitcoin lost approximately between 52% and 57% of its value. Now, a similar pattern is showing up again, and analysts are pointing to a target around $36,000. This level aligns with Fibonacci extensions and overlaps with the lows from previous cycles.

Looking at the current situation, Bitcoin is trading at around the $78,000 level, but it remains below both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. This indicates that market strength has weakened. Momentum indicators—such as (RSI)—are sitting in neutral territory at 45.93. If this death cross follows previous cycles, the $40,000 to $36,000 range could serve as an accumulation zone.

The bearish outlook emerged after Bitcoin broke above $74,000 a month ago. At that time, a short position squeeze, spot ETF inflows, and geopolitical tensions helped trigger the rise. However, momentum quickly faded, and the gains were wiped out by the pullback. Even though the technical indicators are sending warnings, it’s important to remember that such moves are not certain. The market can always move in unexpected ways.