I’ve noticed something interesting these past few days: the Bitcoin network has just crossed the 50% mark in its current cycle, which means the next Bitcoin halving is drawing close. More precisely, we’re talking about April 2028—less than two years away.

What struck me is how the price has performed over the last few months. Bitcoin has risen well since the April 2024 halving, moving from about $64,000 to nearly $78,000 today. But honestly, compared with previous cycles at the same period after the halving, the gains are less spectacular. We even saw a peak at $126,000 in October 2025, followed by a severe correction down to $60,000 in early February. It’s a bit less explosive than in the past.

Why this trend? I think it’s simply because Bitcoin is maturing. With an enormous market capitalization and much broader adoption than before, it takes far more capital to create spectacular moves. Returns naturally decline with each cycle, and that’s to be expected.

On the technical side, what’s happening is pretty fascinating. We’re currently in epoch 5, which began in April 2024 and will continue through 2028. With each halving, the miners’ reward is cut in half. Right now, it’s 3.125 BTC per block, which corresponds to roughly 450 BTC issued daily. The network keeps this 10-minute block cadence through difficulty adjustments every 2,016 blocks.

What really fascinates me is the supply trajectory. Bitcoin has a fixed cap of 21 million coins, and we’re approaching 20 million BTC in circulation. That means there are still about 114 years left to mine the last million. Each new cycle further reduces inflation and reinforces long-term scarcity.

With about 105,000 blocks remaining until the next Bitcoin halving in 2028, issuance continues along its predictable path. Volatility falls with each cycle, and price moves become more gradual. It may be less dramatic for traders, but it’s probably healthier for long-term adoption.