Last week, Bitcoin started drawing green candles in the price chart, but that leaves the question of whether the bear market is truly over unanswered. Of course, everyone is hopeful, but from a Bitcoin analyst’s perspective, there’s a 13-year cycle pattern that tells a very different story.

Right now, the market is trading around $78,000 and is down about 38% from the $126,000 peak in October. But what’s interesting here is that only 14 months have passed since the decline began. An analyst named Xremin, when examining past Bitcoin bear markets, looked into how long it takes for each cycle to form a bottom. Looking back since 2013, it has taken a minimum of 363 days and a maximum of 426 days to reach the Bitcoin bottom. The 2017 cycle lasted 363 days, and the bear market after 2021 lasted 376 days. The correction in 2024 reached 426 days.

This means the current cycle isn’t even halfway through yet. Only about 190 days have passed so far. If we look at historical averages, it’s being discussed that a real bottom could form toward the last quarter of 2026. Yes, institutional demand could prevent Bitcoin from falling to the $50,000 or $40,000 levels, but that’s related to price depth. It has nothing to do with time.

Meanwhile, ABD Spot Bitcoin ETF’leri currently hold about 6.5% of Bitcoin’s total market value. There is also the Department of Labor’s proposal to add cryptocurrencies to 401(k) retirement plans. These are truly meaningful developments and could prevent the bottom from being as severe as in previous cycles. However, psychologically and in terms of market structure, they do not speed up the completion of a cycle.

From a Bitcoin analyst’s perspective, at this stage, calling for a bottom would mean suddenly breaking a 13-year pattern. Given the historically reliable four-year halving cycle, a lasting bottom will likely still require waiting a few more months.