Analysis: Quantum risk could impact $145 billion worth of BTC, with significant selling pressure, but the market can withstand it and it is not catastrophic

BlockBeats News, April 23 — According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin analyst James Check pointed out that recent advances in quantum computing have once again raised concerns about Bitcoin — sufficiently powerful cryptographic quantum computers could theoretically crack Bitcoin’s elliptic curve signatures, exposing public keys of Bitcoin addresses, especially those from the early Satoshi era wallets. However, market data indicates that even in the worst-case sell-off scenario, the scale would be large but manageable, not catastrophic.

It is estimated that about 1.7 million BTC are held in addresses from the Satoshi era that could be vulnerable to such attacks, representing a potential sell pressure of approximately $145 billion at current prices. Data shows that during bull markets, long-term holders (investors holding coins for at least 155 days) typically distribute between 10,000 and 30,000 BTC daily. At this rate, the entire supply from the Satoshi era would be liquidated in roughly two to three months of normal profit-taking. In the recent bear market, over 2.3 million BTC changed hands in a single quarter, exceeding the “target amount” involved in quantum computing concerns, yet the market did not collapse systematically. Monthly inflows to trading platforms approach 850k BTC. The nominal trading volume handled by derivatives markets every few days is equivalent to the entire Satoshi reserve.

Check stated that sudden, concentrated releases would still trigger volatility and could potentially initiate a long-term downtrend, but this scenario assumes irrational economic behavior — any entity with access to such assets would be motivated to gradually distribute them, possibly hedging through derivatives to reduce slippage and maximize gains. He believes the real issue is not mechanical selling pressure but governance — a bigger question is whether to freeze Satoshi’s coins via BIP-361 and let the situation evolve naturally.