When fund rates are extreme, my first reaction isn't "Should I rush in and take the other side," but rather ask myself: Is this wave driven by everyone's emotional panic, or is there something macro-related pushing people to pick sides? To put it simply, if the rate can be extreme, it indicates that the same side is overcrowded, but no one knows how long the crowding will last, and fighting against it head-on can easily get you dragged along.

Recently, I've also seen large on-chain transfers and exchanges' hot and cold wallets moving, which are often interpreted as "smart money" signals. I now mostly treat these as noise... they could be signals, or they could just be moving/relocating custody. If I do use them, it's only to remind myself that "volatility might be coming," not to give me a clear direction.

To avoid impulsive trades, I do two things: first, I reduce my position to a level where I can sleep peacefully; second, I force myself to wait 15 minutes, during which I only check if my preset entry conditions are met. If not, I just skip it—better to miss out than to fuel the fire during the hottest rate times. That's how I start.