I just noticed that Bitcoin is going through an interesting phase in its reward reduction cycle. It has already passed more than halfway to the next halving, with the block reward dropping to 3.125 BTC. The curious thing is that since April 2024, the price has only increased about 15%, which is much less compared to previous cycles. It seems the market is maturing and volatility is calming down.

This cycle is expected to end in April 2028, so there’s still time. Looking at the numbers, Bitcoin reached highs of $126,000 a few months ago, then sharply dropped to $60,000, and now it’s hovering around $77,800. What catches my attention is that the market is watching the $75,500 level, because if it breaks above it, it could liquidate approximately $200 million in short positions, which would accelerate the movement.

For Bitcoin price predictions toward 2028, everything will depend on how adoption and market maturity evolve. The inflation rate is already below 1%, and the supply is approaching the 21 million limit, so the fundamentals remain solid. The next halving in 2028 could be an interesting catalyst, but price movements seem to be less dramatic than before.