On April 23, "BTC OG Insider Whale" agent Garrett Jin posted that currently Brent crude oil is at $103, while the S&P 500 index has hit a new all-time high. According to March Goldman Sachs prime broker data, the global short to long ratio reached 7.6:1, the fastest global net selling in 13 years; after the ceasefire news, Goldman Sachs' "maximum short" basket of 50 stocks surged 7.1% in a single day, typical short covering rather than conviction buying. Trend-following funds (CTAs) are injecting record-breaking funds into U.S. stocks, with the "Seven Giants" rebounding 20% from the March 30 lows, and the Nasdaq setting the longest winning streak since 1992.

However, the author believes that the assumptions supporting this rebound—reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, falling oil prices, cooling inflation, and Fed rate cuts—show no signs of being fulfilled. The "48-hour drama" last weekend proved this: on April 17, Iran announced the Strait was "completely open," causing Brent to plummet 9% to about $90; less than 24 hours later, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard fired on oil tankers and broadcasted that "any ship will be destroyed," with at least nine tankers turning back. On April 23 (today), Iran again fired on three ships in the strait and seized two of them, creating a U.S.-Iran blockade, with Brent returning to $103.

According to Hapag-Lloyd's CEO, rebuilding shipping insurance will take at least 6–8 weeks. The physical damage caused by the seven-week war to energy infrastructure (such as Israel bombing South Pars, Iran attacking Qatar Ras Laffan LNG hub, UAE aluminum smelters, etc.) will take months or even years to repair. The deadlock in the Strait of Hormuz is unresolved, and its duration will be the only certain variable; the market is still playing the classic "musical chairs" game. #Gate13周年现场直击