⚠️ Market Divergence Intensifies: Risk Assets Are “Expected to Rise,” But Energy Reality Is Being Priced in the Opposite Direction

Garrett Jin, an agent known as the “1011 Insider Whale,” said in his latest post that the market is currently trading on a “peaceful expectation,” which is pushing risk assets to keep strengthening. However, this logic is clearly diverging from the true supply and demand dynamics in the energy market.

Data shows that the U.S. S&P 500 has hit a new record high, while Brent Crude Oil prices have also risen back to around $103, indicating a split between the stock market and the energy market.

Previously, hedge funds had heavily shorted crude oil. According to data from Goldman Sachs, the short-to-long ratio once reached as high as 7.6:1. But the key assumptions that the market’s rally depends on—including the Strait of Hormuz resuming passage, oil prices falling, inflation declining, and the Federal Reserve cutting rates—have not truly materialized yet.

At the same time, the gap between forward profit expectations and actual profits has risen again to the same high levels seen in 2021, and market pricing has begun to show clear “expectation-driven” characteristics.

Structurally, this is not simply a matter of prices going up or down—rather, the tug-of-war between expectations and reality is widening.

The most dangerous stage of the market has never been panic, but when everyone believes that “the future will play out according to the script.”
The real risk isn’t in the price itself, but in the moment when consensus and reality start to split. 🚀