"BTC OG Insider Whale" Agent: The Hormuz Crisis is severely underestimated by the market, and there is currently no solution.

BlockBeats News, April 23—“BTC OG Insider Whale” agent Garrett Jin posted that Brent crude oil is currently at $103, while the S&P 500 index has hit a record high. In March, data from Goldman Sachs’ main broker showed that the global short-to-long ratio reached 7.6:1, the fastest global net selling in 13 years. After the ceasefire news broke, Goldman Sachs’ “maximum short” basket of 50 stocks surged 7.1% in a single day, which is typical short covering rather than conviction buying. Trend-following funds (CTAs) are injecting record-breaking capital into U.S. stocks. The “Seven Giants” have rebounded 20% from the March 30 low, and the Nasdaq has logged its longest consecutive winning streak since 1992.

However, the author believes there are no signs that the assumptions supporting this round of rebound—namely the Strait of Hormuz reopening, oil prices falling, inflation cooling, and Fed rate cuts—will be fulfilled. The “48-hour drama” from last weekend was proof: on April 17, Iran announced the strait was “completely open,” sending Brent down 9% to about $90. Within less than 24 hours, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard fired on oil tankers and broadcast that “any ship will be destroyed,” causing at least 9 oil tankers to turn around and head back. On April 23 (today), Iran again fired on three ships in the strait and seized two of them. The U.S.-Iran bidirectional blockade has been formed, and Brent has returned to $103.

According to Hapag-Lloyd’s CEO, rebuilding shipping insurance will take at least 6–8 weeks. The repair timeline for the physical damage to energy infrastructure caused by the seven-week war—such as Israel bombing South Pars, Iran striking the Qatar Ras Laffan LNG hub, UAE aluminum smelters, and others—will be measured in months or even years. The deadlock in the Strait of Hormuz has no solution; how long it lasts will be the only certain variable. The market is still playing the classic “musical chairs” game.