I was paying attention to Polymarket earlier, the probability that the Clarity Act will be signed into law in 2026 has dropped quite significantly—down from 54% previously to now, an 11% plunge in a day. Its trading volume is $430,600, indicating quite serious activity in this prediction market. So what’s the issue? Turns out, the compromise over stablecoin revenue requirements in the Clarity Act has split the industry. Some parties feel the loss of stablecoin incentives is too costly, while others think if the Clarity Act doesn’t become law, the overall regulatory risk for crypto is actually higher. One major exchange has already told senator staff that they’re unhappy with the draft compromise, but no public statement has been issued yet. The result? Circle’s stock price plummeted 20% on Tuesday, then slightly rebounded on Wednesday. White House crypto advisors say everything will be resolved, and the final text of the Clarity Act is expected to come out by the end of this week or early next week. It’s interesting—Polymarket has become a mirror of how the industry actually views these regulatory prospects—from optimistic to somewhat pessimistic in a short time.