$BTC at $78,000, are you scared?

Institutions dumped $1 billion in five days, BlackRock's holdings hit a new all-time high of 806,700 coins, Russia just legislated to recognize Bitcoin as property— but what about the price? Dropped from 126k, down nearly 40%, now hovering around 78,000, like a broken-legged old dog, unable to stand steadily.
First look at the surface: a slight increase of 0.05%, like a dead person's ECG.
In the past 24 hours, BTC price fluctuated by 0.05%, basically unchanged. From the October high of 126k to now, it’s fallen nearly 40%. MACD dead cross below zero, K-line shows “false breakout + long upper shadow,” technicals tell you: this thing still needs to be refined.
First thing: institutions are frantically bottom-fishing, you’re not mistaken.
In the past five days, institutions have poured nearly $1 billion into Bitcoin. The US spot ETF attracted $996 million last week, another $238 million on Monday. BlackRock’s ETF holdings hit a new all-time high, MicroStrategy spent another $2.5 billion last week to buy over 30k BTC.
Second thing: supply is shrinking rapidly, exchanges’ BTC is being moved out fast.
In the past seven days, exchange Bitcoin reserves decreased by 18,400 coins, hitting multi-year lows. This means selling pressure is decreasing. All the coins are being moved into cold wallets by institutions and locked away.
Third thing: Russia has taken action, 20 million new users are about to enter.
Russia just legislated to explicitly recognize Bitcoin as property, allowing it for foreign trade. This means a market with 20 million potential users has just opened its doors.
On one side: institutions are bottom-fishing with $1 billion, supply hits multi-year lows, and 20 million Russian users are entering.
On the other side: BSI issues a bear market warning, profit-taking activities are three times higher than local highs, and negative financing rates indicate bears are crowded.
Key level: 75,000, the last bottom line for bulls and bears.
75,000 is the 100-day moving average, the lower boundary of the box, the final line of defense for bulls. Hold it, and a rebound to 80,000 is possible; break below, and it’s heading straight to 66,000-63,000.
If you are a short-term trader: buy in stages at 75,000-76,000, aiming to take profit at 80,000 with 30%-50%, stop-loss at 73,500. If it breaks down, run, don’t hold.
If you are a long-term investor: try with a light position now, if it really drops to 63,000-66,000, that’s the zone where institutions love to accumulate, go all in. #比特币反弹 $BTC