Lately, when I look at the market, I tend to focus first on the interest rate line. When interest rates rise, everyone's risk appetite seems to tighten like a valve, and positions naturally shrink; when they loosen, sentiment tends to shift toward higher volatility. Recently, the interpretation of ETF capital flows has also been quite noisy, often tying US stock market sentiment and crypto price movements together. To be honest, it can explain part of it, but don’t treat it as a universal factor.

There’s indeed too much information, which can be a bit anxiety-inducing. Right now, I use a very simple filter: just watch two or three “alarm points” (interest rate expectations, dollar strength or weakness, large on-chain inflows and outflows). If nothing triggers, I don’t change my positions; if it does, I only adjust the position size, not chase after news. Anyway, maintaining a stable structure is more reliable than guessing a single candlestick.