I just saw a pretty serious technical signal on the daily Bitcoin chart. The death cross has already formed on the 3-day timeframe, meaning the MA50 has fallen below the MA200. This usually appears during a bear market and often marks the start of a deeper decline. From historical data, every time this pattern has appeared since 2014, Bitcoin's price has typically dropped significantly afterward.

Looking at previous cycles, in 2022 and 2018, the decline was around 52% after the death cross formed. That means from the current crossover area, Bitcoin's price could drop to the $36,000 to $40,000 zone. This also aligns with Fibonacci levels that previously served as support during bear markets. So, that zone might become a potential accumulation area if the decline materializes.

Currently, BTC is at $77.36K, well below the MA50 and MA200 (which are at $75,548 and $96,080). Momentum briefly rose to $74,000 earlier this month due to a short squeeze and inflow into Bitcoin ETFs, but it quickly dropped again. RSI remains neutral at 45.93, so it's not oversold yet. But looking at this pattern, Bitcoin's price might test lower levels first before a recovery occurs. The tense geopolitical situation also makes the market more cautious. Continuing to monitor, hopefully this pattern is a false alarm.