BTC Bull Market Score Index has moved out of the bear market zone—an early sign of reversal, or a false signal?

According to CryptoQuant data, when Bitcoin hit an all-time high of $126,000 last year, the Bull Score Index reached 80. Afterward, following the liquidation event on October 10, it briefly fell to 0, signaling that the market had entered a structurally weak phase.

Today, the index has recovered to the 40-50 range, landing precisely in a sensitive zone at the edge of historical bull markets. This indicates the market hasn’t fully entered a broad bull phase, nor is it trapped in a deep bear market—rather, it has reached a turning point where bulls and bears are fighting for control.

Moreover, based on historical market data, only when the index stays consistently above 60 does Bitcoin have the potential to see a strong rebound. Conversely, if the index remains low for a long period, it usually means the market is in a bear cycle.

Institutional capital is the key variable driving the index’s rebound. In the same period last year, US Bitcoin spot ETFs increased their holdings by about 46,000 BTC, while from 2026 to date they have recorded net selling of approximately 10,600 BTC, creating an estimated demand gap of about 56,000 BTC.

At the same time, Coinbase’s premium index has remained in negative territory since mid-October, indicating that both institutions and retail investors have limited willingness to “bottom pick.” The buying power in the US spot ETF market is clearly not strong enough.

Stablecoin market liquidity is also facing simultaneous pressure. The 60-day market cap growth of USDT turned negative for the first time since October 2023, contracting by about $133 million. Growth in one-year spot demand dropped sharply from 1.1 million BTC to 77,000 BTC, a decline of 93%.

This kind of liquidity depletion closely matches the typical characteristics of a bear market, suggesting that the current market lacks sufficient new capital to sustain continuous price rebounds. In a situation where market funds are scarce, future price action is also filled with uncertainty.

Overall, the Bull Market Score Index moving away from the bear market range is only the first step of sentiment repair. But relying on a single indicator alone is not enough to confirm a trend reversal. Until ETF capital flows turn positive, the Coinbase premium returns to positive, and stablecoin liquidity recovers, this uptick is more likely a technical correction rather than the start of a new bull market cycle. Investors should be alert to the risk of repeated choppy fluctuations in the 40-50 range.

#比特币 # Bull Market Score Index