Bitcoin long and short range battle continues, HYPE faces critical support test of Wave V | Exclusive analysis

This week, the market is searching for direction amid volatility, with opportunities and risks coexisting. The HYPE daily wave Ⅴ structure faces a critical validation point; whether the $40.17 support holds or not will determine the subsequent trend; BTC is hovering between the rebound continuation and resistance zones in wave D, with the bulls and bears still engaged in a tug-of-war within the $73,500–$79,000 range.

Follow the trend, strictly adhere to discipline, only then can you navigate the complex market steadily.

Summary of core trading viewpoints this week:

• Analysis of HYPE’s current trend structure. (See detailed explanation in Part One)

• Market forecast and short-term trading strategies for HYPE this week. (See detailed explanation in Part Two)

• Multi-cycle trend structure analysis of BTC. (See detailed explanation in Part Three)

• Market forecast and medium- to short-term trading strategies for BTC this week. (See detailed explanation in Part Four)

Market validation of last week’s trading strategies and core viewpoints:

• Short-term trading results for HYPE: Last week, HYPE completed one short-term long position (1x leverage), with a total profit of approximately 6.80%. (See Table One)

• Market validation of HYPE trend forecast: In previous articles, we pointed out that the rebound starting from the April 2 low of $34.44 constitutes a potential daily wave Ⅴ upward structure. The current market trend confirms our earlier view. Last week, the rebound peaked at $45.75, successfully breaking the March 18 wave III high of $43.78, and setting a new high for this upward trend.

• Market validation of BTC medium-term trading results: Last week, Bitcoin followed the established mid-term strategy, holding a short position at $89,000 (1x leverage), with a profit of about 17.08% as of last week’s close (around $73,800), with a maximum profit of approximately 32.58% during the period.

• Market validation of BTC trend forecast: In last week’s article, we indicated that the market would maintain a wide-range sideways oscillation. The current trend confirms our previous forecast.

1. HYPE: Trend Structure Analysis

HYPE 4-hour candlestick chart

Figure 1

1. As shown in (Figure 1), HYPE reached a new high of $45.76 on April 16, marking a rebound since the February 6 low of $20.46, and broke through the previous high of $43.78 on March 18 (wave III high). Therefore, the rally from the April 2 low of $34.44 can be temporarily viewed as a daily wave Ⅴ upward structure, which is currently in progress.

2. As shown in (Figure 1), this daily wave Ⅴ can be further subdivided in the 4-hour cycle into four segments: an upward structure composed of 28-29, 29-30, 30-31, and 31-32.

3. Currently, the market is in the 31-32 correction phase.

• In the HYPE 4-hour structure, our self-developed momentum quantification model detects that two momentum indicator lines have both moved below zero, indicating that this correction phase may be prolonged.

• The potential correction endpoint (point 32) is close to the previous support level of $40.17 (point 30).

2. HYPE forecast and short-term trading strategies for this week

1. Market forecast for HYPE this week:

As shown in (Figure 1), pay attention to whether point 32 breaks below point 30 (i.e., $40.17):

• If it holds above, expect sideways consolidation between $40.17 and $45.76;

• If it breaks below this support and the subsequent rebound high cannot surpass $45.76 (point 31), it forms a classic technical pattern of “correction breaking previous low but rebound not making new highs.” This suggests that the daily wave Ⅴ upward structure from the April 2 low of $34.44 may have likely ended at $45.76.

2. Short-term trading strategies for HYPE this week:

• Based on the overall bullish trend forecast, follow the principle of “trend-following, buy on dips.”

• Use the signals from our self-built quantitative models, with 30-minute/60-minute trading cycles, employing 30% position size to capture entry opportunities.

• Entry strategy: HYPE is facing a correction at the start of the week. If the price dips to test the key support at $40.17 and shows signs of stabilization above it, combined with buy signals from the two major models, consider entering long positions with strict stop-loss discipline.

3. Multi-cycle trend structure analysis of BTC

1. Daily wave classification of BTC: (Based on the market since the October 6, 2025 high)

Bitcoin _ Daily candlestick chart:

Figure 2

As shown in (Figure 2), since the rebound from the February 6 low of $60,000, Bitcoin not only hit a new high of $78,333 on April 17 but also has been running for about 73 trading days as of April 19. Its duration and space have significantly exceeded the previous forecast of a “C wave correction within wave C-2” (for example, its rebound duration has far surpassed the 54 days of wave B). Therefore, based on wave theory principles, the original framework may need adjustment. We prefer to redefine this rally from $60,000 as a larger “D wave rebound,” which better aligns with the current market’s pattern of time-expanding, extended rebound cycles.

The specific medium-term correction wave classification can be optimized as follows:

• Wave A correction (downward drive): from the high of $126,200 on October 6, 2025, to the low of $80,600 on November 21, 2025, lasting about 46 days, with a maximum decline of about 36%. This wave establishes the medium-term correction pattern.

• Wave B rebound (complex correction): from the low of $80,600 on November 21, 2025, to the high of $97,924 on January 14, 2026, lasting about 54 days, with a maximum rise of about 21.5%. This is a correction of wave A’s decline.

• Wave C correction (main downward wave): from the high of $97,924 on January 14, 2026, to the low of $60,000 on February 6, 2026, with a rapid decline lasting about 22 days, with a maximum drop of about 38.7%. This wave completed the main correction space.

• Wave D rebound (ongoing/possibly incomplete): from the low of $60,000 on February 6, 2026, to April 19, 2026, lasting about 73 days, with a maximum rise of about 30.6% (from $60,000 to $78,333). This rebound is characterized by a long duration, complex structure, and is currently facing key time windows and resistance zones (such as $79,000–$80,600). If wave D is confirmed, after the rebound ends, an “E wave” correction may follow.

2. Deep analysis of BTC trend structure

Bitcoin _ 4-hour candlestick chart

Figure 3

• Based on the market evolution after the low of $65,000 on March 30.

• As shown in (Figure 3), BTC has been oscillating upward since the March 30 low. The structure from point 18 to point 24 consists of six segments: 18-19, 19-20, 20-21, 21-22, 22-23, and 23-24.

• The chart indicates that from point 18 to point 23, a clear 5-wave rebound structure has been in progress, currently in the 23-24 segment. Our self-developed spread trading model has issued early warning signals of a top (green and white dots in the chart), indicating that technical indicators are in a serious overbought state, and the market may need a short-term correction.

4. BTC forecast and trading strategies for this week

1. BTC market forecast for this week:

• Core view:

Currently, the price remains in a range of $73,500–$79,000, with focus on the battle between bulls and bears near the upper and lower boundaries. If the rebound breaks above the upper boundary, expect a sideways rally with limited space; if it breaks below the lower boundary, the price may further decline toward the key support around $69,500.

2. Key resistance levels:

• First resistance zone: $79,000–$80,600 (near the November 2025 low)

• Second resistance zone: $83,500–$84,500 (area of previous heavy trading and open interest)

3. Key support levels:

• First support: around $73,500 ( previous important support(

• Second support: around $69,500 ) previous important support(

• Third support: $65,000–$66,000 zone ) near the lower boundary of the oscillation range(

4. Trading strategies for this week )excluding unexpected news(: )04.20–04.26(

①, Mid-term strategy:

Bitcoin _ Daily candlestick chart: )Position monitoring model(

Figure 4

Position monitoring model: As shown in (Figure 4), currently, the price is oscillating near the bull-bear ribbon. According to our strategy rules, we hold a 60% short position established at $89,000 (January 28).

• If this week’s rebound successfully stabilizes above the bull-bear ribbon, close all mid-term positions.

②, Short-term strategy: Use 30% position, set stop-loss points, and look for “spread” opportunities based on support and resistance levels, with 30-minute/60-minute trading cycles.

③, Based on the forecast of a medium-term bearish trend, adhere to the principle of “trend-following shorting.” To dynamically respond to market evolution and in conjunction with signals from our trading models, we plan two short-term plans:

• Plan A: Resist rebound, short on rallies.

• Entry: When the price rebounds to the $76,500–$79,000 zone and triggers resistance signals, combined with top signals from the models, establish a 30% short position.

• Risk control: initial stop-loss above $80,600.

• Exit: When the price drops near key support levels and model signals confirm, gradually close positions for profit.

• Plan B: Breakdown short position following trend.

• Entry: When the price continues to decline and effectively breaks below $73,500 support, combined with top signals from the models, establish a 30% short position.

• Risk control: initial stop-loss above $74,500.

• Exit: When the price falls to support levels and model signals confirm, gradually close positions for profit.

5. HYPE: Trading review

1. Short-term trading review: (see Table One)

We strictly followed the trading plan, using signals from our self-developed spread trading and momentum quantification models, completing one short-term (long) trade last week with a total profit of 6.80%.

2. Summary of HYPE short-term trades: )Leverage *1x(

Table One

3. Short-term trade review: (see Figure 5)

• Entry: Based on the bullish wave Ⅴ trend forecast; the spread trading model issued early bottom warning signals (green and white dots in the chart); momentum lines in the model moved above zero, signaling a resonance upward. We entered a 30% long position at $41.59.

• Exit: When the price approached $45 and encountered resistance, and the spread model triggered strong top warning signals (green and white dots), we closed all positions at about $44.42.

• Summary: This trade yielded a profit of approximately 6.80%.

HYPE 60-minute candlestick chart: )Momentum quantification + spread trading models(

Figure 5 (short-term trading illustration)

6. Special reminders:​​

1. When opening a position: immediately set an initial stop-loss.

2. When profit reaches 1%: move the stop-loss to the entry price (break-even point) to protect capital.

3. When profit reaches 2%: move the stop-loss to 1% profit level.

4. Continuous tracking: for every additional 1% profit, move the stop-loss up by 1%, dynamically protecting and locking in gains.

The financial markets are ever-changing; all analysis and trading strategies should be dynamically adjusted. All viewpoints, models, and strategies discussed are based on personal technical analysis only, for personal trading logs, and do not constitute any investment advice or operational basis. Markets carry risks; invest cautiously and do not base decisions solely on this information.