I noticed interesting statistics about Bitcoin — realized losses have reached record levels. This is happening against the backdrop of major players panicking and liquidating their positions at a loss. It reminded me of 2018, the COVID crash in March 2020, and the Luna/FTX collapse in 2022.

Currently, market panic resembles those times when weak positions start to be liquidated. Interestingly, the decline is about 50% from the all-time high — less than the usual 80% drops in previous cycles, but the sense of panic in the market is already approaching the bottom. It seems that the weak players are capitulating.

Such moments have historically coincided with a reversal. When panic reaches its peak and everyone is selling in a panic — it’s usually a sign that the worst is over. We’re watching the situation; maybe it’s really close to the bottom.