The market has once again been “smashed” by “time difference trading”—the boundary between information and capital is disappearing. About 15 minutes before Donald Trump announced on Tuesday the extension of the Iran ceasefire agreement, the oil market saw an extremely unusual burst of concentrated positioning. Trading data shows that ahead of a key statement, the market rushed into large short positions, with the overall size at about $430 million, pointing clearly in one direction—expectations of oil price declines.

Even more concerning is that this is not an isolated incident. High-frequency “pre-event betting” has been seen repeatedly this month, marking the third time such a similar structural trade has occurred, and the fourth time so far that large, precise directional bets appeared before key statements involving the Iran war. In March, a single combined bet of about $500 million appeared; in April, the cumulative betting volume expanded to about $2.1 billion. This means the market is forming a new “information pricing model”: major geopolitical events are being priced in advance, rather than the market reacting passively—at a minute-by-minute level of capital flows.

According to data from the London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG): between 19:54 and 19:56 GMT (a 2-minute window), the oil market concentrated roughly 4,260 sell orders, which—based on the then Brent Crude Oil futures price—corresponded to a nominal value of about $430 million. Then at 20:10, Trump officially announced the extension of the ceasefire.