1. Current Price and Intraday Performance (April 23)

- Price: $78,500–$79,200, approximately +3.6% over 24 hours, with a intraday high of $79,500 (new high since February).
- Sentiment: Fear and Greed Index at 29 (fear), rebounding from lows, with a relatively high rebound probability.
- Volume: Rebound accompanied by volume, but breaking $80k requires increased volume confirmation.

2. Key Levels (Short-term)

- Strong Support: $77,500, $75,000 (weakens if broken).
- Strong Resistance: $80k, $82,000 (breakout targets $85k–$90k).

3. Bullish and Bearish Logic (Today’s View)

✅ Bullish (Bias toward strength)

- Technical: Daily chart back in an uptrend, stabilizing above the 100/200-day moving averages, medium-term structure is positive.
- Capital: US spot ETF has had net inflows for 6 consecutive days, institutional allocation continues.
- On-chain: Long-term holders (cold wallets) show no significant selling, chips are stable.
- Derivatives: Short positions are crowded, a breakout could easily trigger short squeeze and liquidations.

⚠️ Bearish (Short-term risk)

- Event: Approximately $2.2 billion options expire on 4/24–25, increasing volatility.
- Macro: FOMC meeting on 4/30, rate cut expectations are uncertain, USD rebound suppresses risk assets.
- Volume: After a spike, volume diminishes, with a high probability of repeated tug-of-war around the $80k level.

4. Today’s Conclusion and Trading Strategy

- Conclusion: Short-term bias toward bullish, medium-term bullish structure remains unchanged, but with options expiry and FOMC meeting approaching, caution is advised when chasing highs.
- Strategy: - Hold above $77,500, reduce positions if broken to avoid risk.
- Buy: Accumulate in batches during pullbacks to the **$75,000–$76,000** range.
- Take profit: Partial profits at $80k–$82,000, look higher after breakout.