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Bloomberg: Polymarket trading volume overtaken by Kalshi, U.S. market expansion repeatedly thwarted
On April 23, news emerged that Polymarket, which had long dominated prediction market trading volume, is facing multiple difficulties. According to Dune Analytics data, its global trading volume has been surpassed by its main competitor, Kalshi. In terms of valuation, Kalshi announced a new round of funding last month, bringing its valuation to $22 billion, while Polymarket’s valuation is $15 billion after receiving a $600 million investment from Intercontinental Exchange (ICE).
Polymarket’s biggest bottleneck is that it has yet to officially launch in the U.S. market; its U.S. app is still in the testing stage, and its trading volume in March was only one-twentieth of Kalshi’s. The platform continues to be plagued by technical challenges stemming from its blockchain architecture, repeated delays in product launches, recent fee adjustments that have drawn user dissatisfaction, and issues such as the exchange having been down for over an hour.
In addition, Polymarket has faced criticism for allowing users to place bets on controversial topics such as war and nuclear explosions, prompting a letter from Democratic members of Congress to the CFTC requesting intervention. ICE CEO Sprecher still says he is optimistic, but admits that this is either a total win or a home run.