I've noticed that lately, discussions about stagflation are becoming louder in investment circles. It's not just for nothing — markets are genuinely worried due to conflicting signals from the economy.

Here's what's happening: on one hand, inflation refuses to fall, and on the other hand, employment is beginning to weaken. The Federal Reserve finds itself in a tough spot — if they tighten monetary policy, they risk choking the labor market; if they soften, inflation could spiral out of control. Add to this geopolitical risks, (the situation in Iran creates additional volatility), and the picture becomes quite unclear.

The economic data released this week will be critical. CPI and PCE are the main benchmarks everyone watches. If the figures come in higher than forecasts, stagflation will cease to be just a scary story — it will become a real scenario. In that case, the dollar could gain support, while gold is likely to start rising as a hedge.

Company earnings reports also matter. For example, Oracle may provide signals about the state of the real economy. If corporate profits begin to decline amid stagflation, it will intensify panic.

For now, markets are in a wait-and-see mode. Everyone understands that critical days for decision-making are ahead. Personally, I monitor every number — stagflation is no joke for a portfolio.