I recently saw that Howard Marks, co-founder of Oaktree, issued a rather interesting warning about something many investors are ignoring: the real impact of AI on markets.

What caught my attention is that Howard Marks isn’t talking about exact predictions, but quite the opposite. He says that AI is fundamentally unpredictable, and that breaks with the traditional logic of how we invest. Strategies that worked before, based on projections and historical analysis, could become obsolete.

As a concrete example, he mentioned the mass layoffs of 4,000 employees by Block. For Howard Marks, this is just the tip of the iceberg of AI’s disruptive potential. It’s not just a corporate cutback; it’s evidence of how this technology is redefining business models.

Now, the investment advice Howard Marks gives is interesting: bet on equity over debt in companies linked to AI. His logic is clear: those taking on the risks of these evolving business models should be owners, not creditors. It makes sense if we think about who takes the profits when things go well.

But there’s something that worries me more. Howard Marks also warned about the lack of transparency in private markets as AI accelerates. He draws a parallel with previous tech bubbles, where everyone bought into new innovations without truly understanding the risks. It seems we’re repeating the same pattern, only faster this time.