Here's an interesting case from Polymarket history. One user managed to earn more than 2 million dollars by betting that the US would not strike Iran. They bought positions when the probability was between 70 and 90 percent — it seemed like a low-risk scheme. But then sanctions were announced, and everything unfolded.

The user lost 6.74 million over a relatively short period. Daily losses simply wiped out all accumulated profits. In the end, the account fell into a negative balance of 4.49 million dollars. It's a story about how even when a user seems to have calculated everything, the market can turn everything upside down in just a few days.

This is a reminder that in prediction markets, even high probabilities do not guarantee the outcome. Geopolitics can sharply change the situation, leaving the user with losses instead of the expected profit.