#美伊二轮谈判进展 Ceasefire “God-Level Prediction”? $430 Million Precisely Timed Oil Price Drop Bet Sparks New Insider Trading Doubts

On April 22, just 15 minutes before U.S. President Trump announced the extension of the Iran ceasefire agreement, the market saw as much as $430 million in crude oil short bets, triggering strong outside doubts about potential insider trading. Data shows this is the third such time this month, and the fourth time since the outbreak of the conflict, that “precisely timed” large-scale trades appeared before major Middle East situation updates were released:
On March 23, about 15 minutes before Trump announced the postponement of strikes on Iran’s power facilities, around $500 million was bet on a decline in oil prices;
A few hours before the ceasefire agreement was made public on April 7, a $950 million short position was established in advance;
About 20 minutes before Iran announced the opening of the Strait of Hormuz on April 17, $760 million was bet on oil prices rebounding lower;
In total, the scale of similar transactions in April has reached about $2.1 billion. The repeated appearance of “precise trades timed for events” has led the market to begin focusing on the risks of information leakage and regulatory arbitrage.
Analysts say that, in a context of highly sensitive geopolitics, if such trading activities involve the flow of undisclosed information, they could seriously undermine market fairness.