Shorting the index ⭐️⭐️: $OPG

This wave dropped from 0.52 to 0.33, and the core issue isn't the 36% single-day decline, but the fact that the top ten addresses hold 92.63% of the circulating supply—market fluctuations are entirely determined by these ten addresses, with retail chips accounting for less than 8%, giving them no pricing power.

Currently, only 40 million tokens are unlocked from the circulating supply, with 360 million tokens still locked and awaiting release. Even if only 1.5% of the total supply is unlocked on May 21, it will expand the circulating supply by 15%. From the opening rally, all upward movements are to find buyers for locked chips.

On-chain data shows that during the 15-minute surge to 0.5239, the top three addresses transferred nearly 8 million tokens, with a holding cost below $0.05. Now, they are breaking into small orders to buy the dip and distribute tokens. The more the holdings decrease, the more retail investors pile in, not with increasing volume, but by getting trapped and adding to their longs. Large investors use small long orders to influence sentiment, while big short positions are already lurking. About 60% of retail longs have a cost basis above 0.4; a 5-point drop will trigger a chain of forced liquidations.

In the short term, the price is likely to fluctuate between 0.32 and 0.36, possibly even rally to 0.4 to create a false rebound. Once the chips are distributed, the price will break below the previous low of 0.3056, triggering forced liquidations and a stampede, reaching the 0.2 range within three days. As the unlock window approaches, the price may dip below 0.1, ultimately falling back to the 0.05 cost basis.

This is fundamentally a highly controlled chip game. At this moment, bottom-fishing is essentially providing a buyer for massive chips—seeming like a bargain, but actually accepting the flying knives aimed at oneself.