This week's cryptocurrency market experienced a significant rebound. On Wednesday (April 22), Bitcoin briefly reached $79,472, hitting a new high for the month, and the overall crypto market capitalization re-claimed the $2.7 trillion level. The Fear and Greed Index rose to 63, entering the "Greed" zone. However, behind the rebound, there is a clear structural divergence: funds are highly concentrated in core assets, altcoins' gains are relatively limited, and market dominance is shifting toward Bitcoin.

Bitcoin's $80,000 remains the most important psychological and technical resistance level. The options market shows that the probability of breaking $80,000 before the end of April has surged from 44% the previous day to 83%. Breaking $80,000 would put over 54% of short-term holders in profit, a threshold often associated with peak distribution pressure historically. If an effective breakout occurs, there is a small fair value gap above $81,000, with further resistance in the $83,000 to $85,000 range, and the ultimate key supply zone lies between $88,000 and $91,000.

Downside support: $75,000 is the current critical support level, with the $72,000 to $75,000 range forming the bottom, supported by the price clusters realized by medium-term holders.

Ethereum follows Bitcoin's rebound, currently around $2,360, up 4.51% intraday. It is forming a tight consolidation range, with trading structure similar to a symmetrical triangle or bottom pattern. The 1-hour Bollinger Bands are tightening upward, with a high-level oscillation after a short-term rally. MACD below the zero line shows increasing volume but remains weak, with no strong bearish momentum.
ETH is currently in what traders call the "decision zone" — above $2,400 is the buy-side control point, while below $2,250 is the key defensive line for sellers to gain momentum.

Bullish scenario: If it breaks above $2,400 and stabilizes, the expected price path is $2,400 → $2,520 → $2,650 → $2,800.

Bearish scenario: If it falls below $2,250, it could slide to $2,180 → $2,100 → $1,950.

Whether Bitcoin can truly open a new upward cycle depends on confirming the breakout of the $80,000 threshold along with volume. Ethereum needs to wait for clear catalytic signals to determine the direction of its compressed breakout. In the short term, Bitcoin is likely to fluctuate between $78,000 and $80,000, awaiting macro or policy signals for guidance.
The longer Ethereum remains compressed within this range, the stronger the eventual breakout will be. Currently, Ethereum's trend is noticeably weaker than Bitcoin's, mainly due to decreased activity in the DeFi ecosystem and low on-chain Gas fees. Its rebound is more of a follow-up rally rather than an independent trend initiation.