Below 700 million cards! Credit cards enter a deep adjustment phase: declining transactions, pressure from bad debts, how effective is the "return to branches" strategy?

Ask AI · How can returning credit card business to branches improve bank risk control efficiency?

Jiemian News Reporter | He Liuying

Jiemian News Editor | Wang Shu

By 2025, credit card operations will enter a deep adjustment period.

On one hand, both the number and transaction volume of credit cards are shrinking; by the end of 2025, the total number of credit cards and loan combination cards in China has fallen below 700 million, marking the arrival of the stock era.

On the other hand, the quality of credit card assets is generally deteriorating, with Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (601398.SH) reporting a credit card delinquency rate of 4.61%, becoming a major drag on individual loan asset quality.

Under the new market environment, banks such as Bank of Communications (601328.SH) and China Everbright Bank (601818.SH) have decided to return credit card business to branches. Data shows that the effects of this optimization are beginning to appear, and the adjustments are still deepening.

Industry continues to “shrink,” Construction Bank maintains trillion-scale assets

According to the People’s Bank of China, by the end of 2025, the total number of credit cards and loan combination cards in China was 696 million, further down from 727 million at the end of 2024.

Jiemian News analyzed data from 15 A-share listed banks (state-owned + joint-stock banks) and found that many banks’ card volumes are consistent with this trend. For example, at the end of 2025, ICBC’s credit card count was 145 million, down from 150 million at the end of 2024, a reduction of 5 million.

Some banks achieved slight growth, notably China CITIC Bank (601998.SH), which had a total of 129 million credit cards issued by the end of 2025, up about 6 million from the end of 2024’s 123 million.

However, in terms of total transaction volume for the year, nearly all 15 banks saw declines. Data shows that in 2025, the declines in Industrial Bank (601166.SH), CITIC Bank, Bank of Communications, Everbright Bank, Ping An Bank (000001.SZ), ICBC, Huaxia Bank (600015.SH), and Bank of China (601988.SH) all exceeded 10%. Only China Minsheng Bank (600016.SH) (in terms of electronic payment transaction volume) saw a slight increase.

Regarding credit card loan balances, in 2025, China Construction Bank (601939.SH) continued to hold the “leading position,” though its scale shrank.

In 2024, CCB’s domestic credit card loan balance reached 1.07 trillion yuan, becoming the first bank nationwide to surpass 1 trillion yuan in credit card loans. In 2025, CCB maintained a loan balance of 1.01 trillion yuan, down 56.9 billion yuan year-on-year, a 5.33% decrease.

China Merchants Bank (600036.SH)’s credit card loan scale followed closely, at 10.7k yuan, down 0.92% year-on-year. Among the 15 banks, those with loan scales over 500 billion yuan also include Agricultural Bank of China, ICBC, and Bank of Communications.

Year-over-year, 13 of the 15 banks saw a decline in credit card loan scale, with many shrinking by over 10%. For example, Bank of China’s credit card loans dropped from 606.7 billion yuan in 2024 to 498.8 billion yuan in 2025, a decrease of over 17%.

Su Shang Bank’s special researcher Fu Yifu told Jiemian News that overall, the number of credit card issuances continues to decline, most banks are shrinking their issuance scale, with only a few seeing slight growth, which is limited. Transaction volume and loan balances are generally retreating, reflecting weakened credit card activity and credit demand.

Only Shanghai Pudong Development Bank (600000.SH) saw a 5% increase in credit card loan balance, reaching 389.3 billion yuan; Zheshang Bank (601916.SH), with a smaller base, rose slightly by 0.9% to 10.1k yuan in 2025.

“What did the top performers do right?” Pudong Bank emphasized in its annual report the promotion of interest-earning conversion, auto installment loans, and other keywords. The bank reported that by the end of 2025, the loan balance for new energy vehicle installment business was 939.12B yuan, an increase of 33.68B yuan from the previous year.

Quality over scale, “reduced contribution of credit card business revenue”

The deterioration of credit card quality has become a major trend.

In 2025, including ICBC, Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China (601288.SH), Bank of Communications, and other state-owned banks, as well as Minsheng Bank, CITIC Bank, and others, credit card delinquency rates all increased, with ICBC, Minsheng Bank, and Industrial Bank’s rates exceeding 3%, reaching high industry levels.

Specifically, ICBC’s credit card delinquency rate reached 4.61%, a year-on-year increase of 111 basis points.

Image source: ICBC 2025 Annual Report

Fu Yifu told Jiemian News, “(Credit card) performance this year is both a necessary result of industry compliance with regulatory guidance and risk cleanup, and a reflection of banks proactively transforming and pursuing high-quality development. Overall, it is a key transitional phase in industry adjustment.”

Notably, Pudong Bank has become one of the banks with the most obvious credit card delinquency recovery. Its 2025 delinquency rate was 1.92%, down 53 basis points year-on-year.

Jiemian News noted that, along with industry adjustments, banks now generally believe that credit card quality is more important than scale.

At the performance conference, China Merchants Bank President Wang Liang stated, “In recent years, we have adhered to a ‘steady, low-volatility’ strategy, carefully selecting customer groups and preventing risks. To control asset quality, we accept a declining contribution of credit card revenue. Therefore, the asset quality of credit card loans has remained relatively stable, with a non-performing rate of 1.74% at the end of last year, maintaining a good position among peers.”

Previously, China Merchants Bank analyzed credit card delinquencies, listing historical data on changes in credit card loan delinquency rates: the overall market’s delinquency rate showed signs of rising in 2019, and with the impact of the pandemic in 2020, delinquency rates increased sharply. From 2019 to 2025, the market’s credit card delinquency rate, except for slight improvement and correction in 2021, has mostly shown a clear upward trend, with no signs of a turning point.

Looking ahead, asset quality of bank cards is expected to remain under pressure. Vice President Xu Mingjie of China Merchants Bank mentioned at the earnings conference that, in the coming year and beyond, the retail loan asset quality across the industry will still be under pressure, including credit cards, which face certain challenges.

Fu Yifu analyzed for Jiemian News that the industry’s core shift toward “quality over scale” has led many banks to proactively adjust strategies, carefully select customer groups, and strictly control risks, no longer blindly pursuing issuance volume. “In terms of non-performing assets, future pressure is expected to persist, but overall risk is controllable, gradually entering a phase of stable release. In the short term, macroeconomic impacts will continue to pressure retail loan asset quality, and credit card delinquency rates may stay high. Banks with accumulated risks from earlier periods will still face rising non-performing assets. But in the long run, delinquency evolution will slow and trend positively.”

Next, risk control will be a major focus for credit cards. For example, Industrial Bank’s annual report explicitly states that it will improve the full-process risk management system, iterate risk control models, enhance the quality of new credit approvals, strengthen in-loan detailed management and post-loan collection, and continuously reduce new non-performing loans.

The industry’s positive aspect is that “on one hand, banks are generally emphasizing risk management, front-loading risk controls in customer screening and credit management to reduce high-risk lending; on the other hand, they are accelerating non-performing asset disposal through bulk transfers to clear existing risks, easing pressure. Moreover, as industry transformation deepens, measures such as cultivating high-quality customer groups and scene-based operations will gradually take effect, helping stabilize asset quality. It is expected that non-performing rates will not spike sharply and will gradually stabilize,” Fu Yifu told Jiemian News.

It is worth noting that, with the extension of the pilot period for non-performing loan transfers to December 31, 2026, industry insiders generally believe that banks will continue to transfer credit card non-performing assets, becoming an important channel for risk disposal.

Business returning to branches, credit card centers “large retreat”

In 2025, the “large retreat” of credit card centers continued.

In December 2025, GF Securities Co., Ltd.’s Hengyang Credit Card Center was approved to cease operations; in August 2025, Henan Financial Regulatory Bureau approved the termination of Bank of Communications’ Pacific Credit Card Center Zhengzhou branch; in July 2025, Guangdong Financial Regulatory Bureau approved the termination of China Minsheng Bank’s South China Credit Card Center.

Previously, due to industry adjustments, banks such as Bank of Communications and Everbright Bank began implementing credit card localization strategies. In their 2024 annual reports, they explicitly stated “promoting credit card localization management”; Everbright Bank emphasized, “Focusing on prudent and steady development, returning to the core of consumer finance, and firmly returning to branches, with refined operations to optimize customer groups and asset structures.”

A year later, these institutions’ credit card localization efforts have achieved certain results.

In their 2025 annual report, Bank of Communications stated that they are deeply advancing the reform of credit card localization management. By the end of the reporting period, 38 branches fully assumed responsibilities for local credit card management, with the proportion of new active local customers, new card issuance, and scene installment service customers all increasing significantly compared to before the transformation—by 140%, 1.3 percentage points, and 155%, respectively.

Recently, Everbright Bank Vice President Qi Ye said at the earnings conference, “2025 was a full year for our bank’s credit card business to shift from direct operation to localized management. We clarified the core concept of ‘returning to consumption origin and branches,’ and continued to promote risk governance and high-quality development. We mobilized branch resources, deepened consumption scenarios, and accelerated structural adjustments centered on suitable customers.”

Fu Yifu believes that the trend of banks “returning credit cards to branches” is expected to continue. Currently, the incremental growth in credit card industry has peaked, and the extensive expansion model of independent card centers no longer meets development needs. Returning to branches leverages their local advantages for more precise customer management and risk control. The main impacts are: first, improving risk control efficiency, as branches are more familiar with local customers and can effectively reduce off-site credit risks; second, optimizing customer service, enabling credit card business to coordinate with other retail banking services for a one-stop financial experience; third, reducing costs and increasing efficiency by integrating existing branch resources and lowering operational costs of independent card centers, while boosting customer activity and high-quality customer share.

“Moreover, this model can also promote embedding credit card services into local consumption scenarios,” Fu Yifu added.