TD Cowen: The Crypto Legislation "Clarify Act" Faces Five Major Obstacles, with Doubts About Its Prospects

Deep Tide TechFlow News, April 23, According to The Block, Investment bank TD Cowen’s Washington research team Managing Director Jaret Seiberg pointed out that the issue of stablecoin yields is not the only obstacle to the passage of the “Clear Act,” and listed the following five additional barriers:

1. The CFTC is severely short-staffed, currently with only Chairman Michael Selig remaining, and the process to appoint additional commissioners could take several months, while the bill needs to be reviewed by late July;

2. Regulatory issues surrounding prediction markets are complex, involving insider trading and potential conflicts of interest within the Trump family, and related amendments could cause Democrats to withdraw support;

3. The Trump family’s crypto project, World Liberty Financial, continues to generate controversy, increasing political resistance among Democrats to support the bill;

4. Iran reportedly discussed requiring ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz to pay tolls in cryptocurrency, which could trigger anti-money laundering amendment disputes and become a “poison pill” for the bill;

5. The Credit Card Competition Act risks being incorporated into the “Clear Act,” potentially causing overall legislative blockage.

Additionally, regarding stablecoin yield issues, Senator Thom Tillis stated that the Senate Banking Committee will likely not vote on the bill until May at the earliest. TD Cowen maintains a roughly one-third probability of the bill passing this year, while Galaxy Digital estimates about a 50% chance.