The most important macroeconomic event today is that Trump has TACOed as expected, and he said the pause will last until the peace agreement is signed, which also indicates that the U.S. has no intention of going all-in with Iran. However, shortly afterward, Trump also expressed that the ceasefire period is not unlimited, but only an additional 3 to 5 days, which I think is meaningless. At that point, TACO is still likely.

Although the risk markets have collectively rebounded, contrary to expectations, Brent and WTI are still rising mainly because reports say that even if the Strait of Hormuz is reopened, it may still take about six months to clear the mines in that area, which suggests that oil prices could remain constrained for a long time.

Looking at BTC data, as the price of BTC rises, the turnover rate has also increased significantly, but trading volume hasn't changed much. It feels like investors are accelerating their sell-offs, but the overall chip structure hasn't shown obvious changes. Yesterday's rise was probably due to the continuation of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire and continued buying by BlackRock investors. However, some institutional investors believe the rally has run out of steam and have started selling. Of course, the selling volume isn't large, but buying power isn't strong either. This situation often indicates investor hesitation; more investors don't believe there will be a significant short-term increase, nor do they think current prices are the peak for BTC. This also shows that more traditional investors are increasingly shifting toward long-term holding, and short-term price movements and macro changes are unlikely to affect their resolve. Without further positive catalysts, it will probably be difficult to sustain a continuous rise.